EIA: lower crude oil prices reduced US-Canada energy trade value in 2025

As of 6 March 2025, Canada’s energy exports to the US are subject to a 10% tariff, although some crude oil volumes are potentially exempt from tariffs if they qualify for the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement preference. More recent tariff actions announced by the White House exempt energy trade.

Despite the imposition of the 10% tariff last year, the US remained the largest export destination for Canada’s crude oil given the existing pipeline infrastructure connecting the two markets. Relatively complex US petroleum refineries tend to prefer heavy crude oils, such as those produced in Canada.

Crude oil

Brent crude oil prices averaged US$69/bbl in 2025, US$11/bbl lower than in 2024. Lower crude oil prices in addition to lower trade volumes resulted in the value of crude oil trade between the US and Canada averaging US$94.7 billion, 16% less than in 2024.

Canada is a key source of US crude oil imports, and it remained the primary source of US crude oil imports in 2025. US crude oil imports from Canada in 2025 averaged 3.9 million bpd, 4% less than in 2024, partly due to increased utilisation in Canada of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which brings Canadian crude oil to the Pacific Coast for export to foreign markets. Canadian companies can export crude oil to markets in the US West Coast region and, increasingly, to those in Asia.

US crude oil exports to Canada are small by comparison, averaging 383 000 bpd in 2025, 2% less than in 2024. US crude oil exports to Canada are typically low-density and low-sulfur crude oil grades shipped via pipeline to eastern Canada.

Petroleum products

Petroleum products trade between the US and Canada increased by about 2% by volume in 2025 but decreased by about 4% by value, driven by lower fuel prices. Crude oil prices make up the largest component of gasoline and diesel fuel prices.

In 2025, the US imported 583 000 bpd of petroleum products from Canada, a 2% decrease. Lower fuel prices and lower import volumes resulted in US$16 billion of petroleum imports from Canada in 2025, 15% lower than in 2024. Meanwhile, US petroleum product exports to Canada in 2025 averaged 504 000 bpd, 6% higher than in 2024. Similarly, the value of US petroleum product exports to Canada in 2025 was 12% less than in 2024 at US$13.4 billion.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/30072026/eia-lower-crude-oil-prices-reduced-us-canada-energy-trade-value-in-2025/