ETC calls for a rapid phase-down of fossil fuel demand and supply

Unless fossil fuel emissions are reduced to net zero by mid-century, it will be impossible to meet the targets set out in the COP21 Paris Agreement. Time is running out to achieve these targets. COP28 must therefore gain global agreement to the rapid phase-down in the demand for and supply of all fossil fuels.

Fossil fuel-related emissions amount to about 38 Gt of CO₂e of which 6 Gt result from the production, transport, and processing of fossil fuels. These scope 1 and 2 emissions can and must be rapidly reduced with CO₂ emitted down 55% by 2030, and methane from oil and gas operations down 70% by that date.

But over 80% of fossil-related emissions (~31.5 Gt in 2022) result from the combustion of fossil fuels in use. It is therefore also essential to rapidly phase down the demand for and supply of all fossil fuels. By 2050, coal use can and must fall around 80 - 85% from 2022 levels, gas by 55 - 70%, and oil by 75 - 95%. And this reduction can and must start now, with coal use needing to decrease around 15 - 30% by 2030, gas by 15 - 20% and oil by 5 - 15%.

The report argues that this reduction of fossil fuel use is technically and economically feasible, since key technologies (such as renewables, batteries, electric vehicles [EVs] and heat pumps) are progressing faster than anticipated and already displacing fossil fuel demand in many regions; pathways to achieve near total decarbonisation of all sectors of the economy (including heavy industry and long-distance transport) are now clear. As a result, fossil fuel use will soon start falling in several sectors. For example, passenger EV sales are likely to reach around 15 million (20% of the global market) in 2023. Oil demand in road transport will start falling soon and could be down by 40% - 60% by 2040.

Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) will be required to achieve decarbonisation in some sectors where alternatives are not available or not cost-competitive (e.g., cement), but total CCUS volumes in 2050 will be limited to around 4 Gt per annum. Dramatic reductions in fossil fuel use will need to be combined with about 150 Gt of additional cumulative CO₂ removals if global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C, but these must be in addition to, not instead of, fossil fuel demand reduction.

The possibility of CCUS and removals cannot be used to justify business as usual for fossil fuel production. It is not prudent or credible to assume significantly higher CCUS and removals. Scenarios which assume higher volumes to justify maintained fossil fuel production are not compatible with meeting climate objectives.

"CCUS and carbon removals cannot be used to justify business as usual fossil fuel production. Some CCUS and removals are required to achieve net zero emissions and limit global warming to 1.5°C – playing a vital, but limited, complementary role alongside zero-carbon electricity, clean hydrogen and the use of sustainable low-carbon bioresources. They must be deployed as well as, not instead of, rapid reduction in fossil fuels use," said Ita Kettleborough, Director, ETC.

The report, 'Fossil Fuels in Transition' was developed in collaboration with ETC members from across industry, financial institutions and environmental advocacy. The ETC is a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape committed to achieving net zero emissions by mid-century whose members include: ArcelorMittal, bp, HSBC, Iberdrola, RMI, Shell plc, SSAB, Tata Steel, Vattenfall, Volvo, Worley, We Mean Business Coalition, World Resources Institute and Ørsted.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/the-environment/16112023/etc-calls-for-a-rapid-phase-down-of-fossil-fuel-demand-and-supply/