EIA expects US drivers will spend the smallest share of their disposable income on gasoline since 2005

“The good news for consumers is that we are generally seeing lower prices at the pump, and we expect gasoline prices to keep trending lower through next year,” said EIA Acting Administrator, Steve Nalley.

Highlights from the September STEO include:

• Global oil prices: EIA continues to expect significantly lower oil prices in the near term. The STEO forecast shows the Brent crude oil price falling from US$68/bbl in August to average US$59/bbl in the 4Q25 and around US$50/bbl in early 2026. OPEC+ leads global growth in oil production in EIA’s forecast, which should result in growing inventories of oil and petroleum products. Those higher inventories pushed prices down in EIA’s forecast.
• Gasoline prices and expenditures: EIA expects the US average retail price for regular-grade gasoline to be about US$3.10/gal. in 2025 and US$2.90/gal. in 2026. EIA expects in 2025, US drivers’ gasoline expenditures as a share of disposable personal income are likely to be the lowest since at least 2005 – excluding 2020. EIA estimates expenditures will average less than 2% of disposable income this year, down from an average 2.4% over the previous decade.
• Natural gas prices: EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will rise from an average of US$2.91 per million Btu in August to $3.70 per million Btu in the 4Q25 and US$4.30 per million Btu in 2026.
• Hydrocarbon production: With rising natural gas prices and falling oil prices, EIA expects drilling activity in the United States will be more centred in natural gas-intensive producing regions in 2026. EIA forecasts the price difference between crude oil and natural gas prices in 2026 will be the lowest since 2005. In EIA’s forecast, US natural gas production remains relatively flat in 2026, but crude oil production declines by about 1% compared with 2025.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/special-reports/10092025/eia-expects-us-drivers-will-spend-the-smallest-share-of-their-disposable-income-on-gasoline-since-2005/