Transportation fuel demand remains below pre-pandemic levels

Several factors are keeping demand, which are tracked as product supplied, below pre-pandemic levels. For example, increased fuel efficiency in the vehicle and aircraft fleets has offset increased travel, and demand for petroleum-based distillate fuel oil has been partially replaced by biomass-based distillate fuels.

In April 2020 (the first full month following the 13 March declaration of the COVID-19 national emergency), US gasoline demand fell to 5.9 million bpd, the lowest since January 1974. In April 2025, US gasoline demand averaged 8.9 million bpd, 52% higher than it was in April 2020 but below the April 2019 average of 9.4 million bpd.

Gasoline demand gradually increased in the months following the emergency declaration. On an annual basis, between 2016 and 2019, US gasoline demand averaged 9.3 million bpd. In 2020, it fell to 8.0 million bpd before averaging 8.9 million bpd in 2023 and 2024.

Increased vehicle efficiency has offset increased driving activity, measured as vehicle miles travelled (VMT). US VMT reached an all-time high in 2024, at 9.0 billion miles per day, which was higher than the 2016 - 19 average of 8.8 billion VMT per day. However, increased fuel efficiency and electrification of the vehicle fleet has resulted in less gasoline consumption despite increased driving activity.

In May 2025, petroleum distillate fuel oil demand was 3.8 million bpd, 10% (0.3 million bpd) more than in May 2020, when demand for distillate fell to its lowest point following the COVID-19 declaration. Because distillate fuel oil is largely used in shipping goods and other economic activity, distillate consumption was less affected by COVID-19 mitigation efforts than gasoline and jet fuel, which are more closely tied to commuting and personal travel.

In 2024, petroleum distillate demand averaged 3.8 million bpd, less than the 4.1 million bpd consumed in 2019. The primary cause for this decline was substitution of petroleum diesel with biofuels, namely renewable diesel, which has gained a larger market share of the diesel pool due to clean-fuel programmes that provide incentives for biofuels. In 2019, only 110 000 bpd of renewable diesel and biodiesel were consumed as product, whereas in 2024, 310 000 bpd were consumed. Including biodiesel and renewable diesel, total distillate demand in 2024 was closest to pre-pandemic levels, at only 1% below 2019 distillate demand.

In May 2025, US jet fuel demand averaged 1.8 million bpd, significantly more than in May 2020, when demand fell to 597 000 bpd, the lowest since May 1968. In the three years prior to the pandemic, jet fuel demand gradually increased. However, jet fuel demand has not returned to pre-pandemic levels in part because the fleet of aircraft has become more efficient, and in 2024, jet fuel demand was 3% below 2019 levels.

In 2024, data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics indicate the number of passengers and the available seat miles, a measure of aircraft carrying capacity, both increased from 2019, although the total number of flights decreased. Efficiency gains and changing flight patterns, among other factors, have contributed to jet fuel consumption remaining slightly lower than pre-pandemic levels.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/28082025/transportation-fuel-demand-remains-below-pre-pandemic-levels/