US refinery maintenance leads to increased exports of crude oil

During this period, refinery maintenance on the US East Coast drove down US demand for crude oil imports, including imports from Nigeria, and the relatively new Dangote refinery in Nigeria drove up Nigeria’s demand for inputs, including crude oil it imported from the US. This marks the first time that the US was a net crude oil exporter to Nigeria, and structural changes to crude oil trade between the countries suggest this dynamic could occur more frequently.

In January 2024, the Dangote refinery in Nigeria began processing crude oil, and in the following month Nigeria imported crude oil from the US. Nigeria is more commonly considered a source for US crude oil imports. In nearly every year between 1973, when US-level crude oil import data series began, and 2011, when an increase in domestic crude oil production reduced the need for light, sweet crude oil from Nigeria and other countries, Nigeria ranked among the top five sources of US crude oil imports. More recently, Nigeria ranked ninth among US crude oil import sources in 2024.

US gross exports of crude oil to Nigeria reached 111 000 bpd in February 2025 and 169 000 bpd in March. Over the same period, US gross crude oil imports from Nigeria fell, from 133 000 bpd in January to 54 000 bpd in February and 72 000 bpd in March.

These declines primarily reflected maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey, reducing demand for crude oil imports. As the Bayway refinery returned to normal operations in April and the Dangote refinery experienced unplanned maintenance from early April through mid-May, US crude oil imports from Nigeria increased and US crude oil exports to Nigeria declined.

The Dangote refinery is scheduled to reach full crude oil distillation capacity of 650 000 bpd in 2025; trade press reports indicate it is currently running at about 550 000 bpd. Dangote will likely continue processing imports of crude oil if the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) does not increase crude oil deliveries beyond the 300 000 bpd it currently delivers.

Revenue generated from crude oil sales to the Dangote refinery are denominated in naira, Nigeria’s domestic currency. Because the naira has weakened relative to the US dollar, the NNPC has an economic incentive to sell its crude oil on international markets. In addition, the NNPC’s ability to increase deliveries may be limited because crude oil production by the NNPC and its partners has generally declined, falling from a peak of 2.4 million bpd in 2005 to 1.3 million bpd in 2024.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/23072025/us-refinery-maintenance-drives-exports-of-crude-oil/