EIA expects highest natural gas inventories in a decade heading into winter

Increased natural gas production and reduced feedgas stemming from LNG facility maintenance drove EIA’s forecast for higher gas in inventories in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). "More natural gas in inventories in the fall season provides a cushion for increased heating-related consumption during the winter," EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said.

Global oil market assumptions

EIA has increased its estimates of shut-in crude oil production in the Middle East in the coming months compared with the July forecast as a result of continued constraints on transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The forecast assumes those constraints persist through August.

Global oil prices

EIA expects global oil inventories to decrease, leading to higher Brent crude oil prices forecast to average US$85/bbl in 3Q26. As inventories rebuild and production increases by early 2027, prices are expected to gradually drop to an average of US$69/b in 2027.

LNG exports

EIA forecasts US LNG exports will average 16.5 billion ft³/d in 3Q26, a slight decrease from July’s STEO because of maintenance at Freeport LNG. The result is lower feedgas demand and increased storage in the South Central region. Mexico’s new Energia Costa Azul terminal and higher US gas consumption for power generation are increasing pipeline exports. EIA expects growth in US LNG exports through 2027.

Natural gas prices

EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will average US$2.87 per million Btu in 3Q26, 50 cents less than forecast last month. The decrease is driven by reduced LNG feedgas demand and robust natural gas production.

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