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CEDIGAZ releases natural gas outlook

Published by , Senior Editor
Hydrocarbon Engineering,

CEDIGAZ, the International Information Center on Natural Gas, has just released its ‘Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2019’.

Cedigaz Scenario incorporates government ambitions in the context of the energy transition that is underway. It is built upon the implementation of strong energy efficiency programmes and increased diversification of the energy mix based on the NDCs.

Cedigaz Outlook 2019 highlights that natural gas has a crucial role to play to support the energy transition and meet all targets of the NDCs. The future expansion of natural gas in the energy mix is driven by the competitiveness and abundance of gas resources in gas-rich markets (North America, Russia, Middle East, Mozambique), which will expand LNG export capabilities. Positive developments of unconventional gas, especially in the US, and LNG markets will continue to reshape natural gas supplies.

The report forecasts that natural gas demand will grow by 40% from 2017 to 2040 (+ 1.4% per year), with Asia leading the growth. Projections on gas demand in most emerging Asian markets have been revised upward compared to the previous Outlook.

International LNG trade is expected to grow by more than 3% per year to 2040 and long-distance (interregional) LNG trade will grow the fastest (+ 4.9% per year), driven by Asia. The share of LNG in net interregional gas trade will progress from 39% in 2017 to 60% in 2040.

The US is forecast to lead the global expansion of gas and LNG supply and will have a growing influence on the global gas balance and international pricing.

Operating and under construction LNG liquefaction plants are expected to be sufficient to cover the anticipated LNG demand until 2022.

The report also expects the LNG market to remain well-supplied until at least the middle of the next decade assuming likely additional FIDs (including Qatar expansion projects) in the near future.

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