EIA expects US hydrocarbon production to be supported by export growth

AEO2025, which was released in April 2025, only considers market and policy inputs as of December 2024 in most cases. Legislation, regulations, executive actions, and court rulings after that date are not considered in this analysis.

Crude oil

Crude oil production increases to about 14.0 million bpd in 2027 or 2028 in most cases, compared with 13.2 million bpd in 2024. Near-term growth in the projections is largely due to increased production in the Permian Basin. The long-term projections differ somewhat from the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which forecasts that US crude oil production will average 13.4 million bpd in 2025 and a bit less in 2026, based on more recent market conditions.

Production rises to almost 18.0 million bpd in the early 2030s in the two cases that are most supportive of growth: the ‘high oil price’ case, which assumes a higher Brent crude oil price, and the ‘high oil and gas supply’ case, which assumes higher ultimate recovery per well and lower drilling costs. Production decreases throughout the projection period in the ‘low oil price’ case and the ‘low oil and gas supply’ case.

After 2030, crude oil production begins to decline in most of the projections as domestic petroleum demand decreases. Declining well productivity – brought about in part because production per well decreases as wells are drilled closer together – makes drilling less profitable in some regions.

Natural gas

Dry natural gas production increases to between 42.6 trillion ft³ and 44.3 trillion ft³ in the early 2030s in most of the reported cases, compared with 38.4 trillion ft³ in 2024. In most cases, production remains relatively flat through 2050.

In the ‘high oil and gas supply’ case, crude oil production contributes to more natural gas production from the associated dissolved natural gas in shale resources; the assumptions also result in higher natural gas production per well. Conversely, in the ‘low oil and gas supply’ case, low crude oil production contributes to less natural gas production as associated gas production declines.

Exports

Oil and natural gas production volumes support increasing exports of both petroleum products and natural gas in the projections. Much of the crude oil produced in the US is refined into petroleum products domestically and then exported.

The EIA projects that the US will remain a net exporter of petroleum products through 2050 in all cases as expected capacity expansions at export terminals allow refineries and natural gas processors to increase exports.

US natural gas prices tend to be lower than global prices, making US LNG attractive on the international market. Favourable economics for US-supplied natural gas leads to LNG exports growing through 2040 in most of cases. In the AEO2025 Reference case, LNG exports peak at 9.8 trillion ft3 in 2040, more than double the amount exported in 2024. The EIA made several key assumptions underpinning these projections:

• Through 2028, all US LNG export growth results from existing and under construction facilities announced as of June 2024.
• The LNG export permitting pause issued in February 2024 is not included in the model. The pause was rescinded as of January 2025.
An annual maximum of 0.8 trillion ft3 of new US LNG export capacity can be built between 2030 and 2050 if it is economical to do so.

Although the Henry Hub natural gas spot price increases after the mid-2030s, domestic LNG capacity growth is economical until around 2040, when the Henry Hub price becomes too high to support new export project builds. International demand for LNG supports US natural gas production through 2050 across all cases. To continue meeting international demand, producers access less economical resources over time. As a result, the Henry Hub price rises steadily, increasing from US$2.88 real 2024 dollar per million Btu in 2025 to US$4.80 per million Btu in 2050 in the Reference case. The rising production costs temper the growth in LNG exports over time.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/special-reports/14072025/eia-expects-us-hydrocarbon-production-to-be-supported-by-export-growth/