World energy consumption is set to grow by 28% between 2015 and 2040, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest ‘International Energy Outlook 2017’ (IEO2017).
The EIA forecasts that most of this growth will come from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and especially in countries where demand is driven by strong economic growth, particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia (which includes China and India) accounts for more than 60% of the world's total increase in energy consumption from 2015 through 2040.
Through 2040, the IEO2017 projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources, except for coal demand, which is projected to remain essentially flat.
Renewables are expected to be the fastest-growing energy source, followed by nuclear power.
The EIA expects that fossil fuels will still account for more than three-quarters of world energy consumption through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the outlook, with global natural gas consumption increasing by 1.4% per year.
Although liquid fuels—mostly petroleum-based—remain the largest energy source throughout the IEO2017 projections, the liquids share of world marketed energy consumption is projected to fall slightly, from 33% in 2015 to 31% in 2040. As oil prices rise, energy consumers are expected to turn to more energy-efficient technologies and switch away from liquid fuels where possible.
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