Having peaked, at a five year high of 1.6 million bpd in 2015, global oil demand growth is forecast to ease back considerably in 2016, to 1.2 million bpd, pulled down by notable slowdowns in Europe, China and the US, the newly released IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for February informs subscribers. Early elements of the projected slowdown surfaced in the 4Q15.
Global oil supply dropped 0.2 million bpd to 96.5 million bpd in January, as higher OPEC output only partly offset lower non-OPEC production. Non-OPEC supplies slipped 0.5 million bpd from a month earlier to stand close to levels of a year ago. For 2016 as a whole, non-OPEC output is expected to decline by 0.6 million bpd, to 57.1 million bpd.
OPEC crude oil output rose by 280 000 bpd in January to 32.63 million bpd as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and a sanctions free Iran all turned up the taps. Supplies from the group during January stood nearly 1.7 million bpd higher year on year.
OECD commercial stocks built counter seasonally by 7.6 million bbls in December to stand at 3.012 million bbls at month end, 350 million bbls above average. Refined products covered 32.3 days of forward demand, 0.1 day above the level at end November. Preliminary information indicates that inventories have continued building into January.
Global refinery runs fell by 1.3 million bpd in January to 79.8 million bpd, as the onset of seasonal maintenance in the US and weakening refinery margins curbed runs. Global throughputs nevertheless stood more than 1.7 million bpd above a year earlier, with gains particularly strong in the US and the Middle East.
Adapted from press release by Francesca Brindle
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/09022016/iea-releases-oil-market-report-feb-2016-2430/