IHS Markit predicts largest oil demand fall in history

Owing to the unprecedented stoppage of Chinese economic activity in February and the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus outside of China, it is estimated that world oil demand in 1Q20 will be 3.8 million bpd lower than a year earlier. This represents a downward revision of 4.5 million bpd from previous estimates prior to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Never before has such a quarterly drop been recorded. The previous largest decline was in 2009, when oil demand fell 3.6 million bpd in 1Q09. In another milestone event, the US Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced its first rate cut since 2008 that occurred outside of a scheduled policy meeting.

Additional observations from the IHS Markit Crude Oil Market Service include:

• Most of the demand decline is in China, but demand elsewhere, including Europe, Japan, South Korea, the Middle East, and North America, has been revised down.
• COVID-19 cases outside of China continue to accelerate, which means that the negative demand impact will continue into 2Q20.
• Demand for all refined products is negatively impacted, but especially for gasoline in China because of the steep decline in road travel as a result of government restrictions and for jet fuel due to flight cancellations within China and the long-haul routes to and from Asia. In China, commercial passenger trips by road, rail, air, and water were down 80% in February compared with a year ago.
• OPEC production is at a 17-year low and could drop even further as oil buyers cut purchases in March and April. But the decline in output is still less than the decline in demand, which means oil inventories are likely to experience a large increase, particularly in China and the Middle East, unless OPEC at its ministerial meeting later this week cuts production in a major way.
• It now appears likely that oil demand will be less than in 2019, even if there is a recovery in the second half of 2020.

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