As outlined in the report, announced projects include a potential 58 million t of ethylene capacity, far more than global ethylene demand can plausibly grow; it argues however that a closer look at what will pan out leads to the unmistakable conclusion that feedstock demand growth and pricing will be less bullish than many believe.
The report asserts that a portion of announced new capacity will be postponed or scrapped altogether. For example, four newly announced US-fed ethane crackers in China raise the prospect of that country importing 450 000 bpd of US ethane in less than five years. However, the current trade dispute will cause investors to hesitate and less favourable ethane pricing may cause some investors to re-evaluate plans. The prospect of Chinese tariffs on US ethane will slow progress on these projects until the US and China eventually sort out trade relations, which ESAI Energy believes they will do. Meanwhile, advantageous Mt Belvieu ethane pricing is disappearing. After Mt Belvieu ethane traded at a 5 cpg or less premium to Henry Hub natural gas for five years, its premium has tripled. Even with delays and cancellations, however, the olefins market is tilted toward overcapacity.
“In this investment environment, a high-level perspective provides a useful reality check,” explains ESAI Energy Head of NGLs, Andrew Reed. “There is a point when olefins investment becomes a better indicator of overcapacity rather than a guarantee of future feedstock demand. For future NGL and naphtha, the unmistakable conclusion is that overcapacity will lead to greater inter-fuel competition, which makes the outlooks for demand and pricing of individual feedstocks less bullish than what many believe.”
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/31072018/esai-energy-global-ngl-demand-greatly-over-estimated/