EIA forecasts slowed world oil consumption growth
Published by Oliver Kleinschmidt,
Assistant Editor
Hydrocarbon Engineering,
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that consumption growth of crude oil and other liquid fuels will slow over the next two years, driven by a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in Asia, according to its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
The world economy, measured by GDP, increases 2.8% in 2025 and 2026 in the EIA’s forecast. Excluding the years of global economic contraction in 2020 and 2009, these economic growth rates would be the lowest since 2008. Considerable uncertainty over world trade, manufacturing, and investment points to downside risk in economic growth, which has a direct effect on oil consumption.
Economic activity uses energy. Increases in population, individual mobility, the shipping of goods, and industrial output result in more oil consumption. Since the year 2000, annual oil consumption growth has been the lowest during the years when the world economy grew by less than 3%. World oil consumption was around 103 million bpd in 2024 based on preliminary estimates.
The tariffs announced on US trading partners in early April may have already slowed global trade in physical goods, based on preliminary container vessel departure data from Bloomberg. Less global trade will lead to fewer shipments of goods on vessels as well as fewer trucking deliveries and could affect employment and leisure travel as well. All these factors weigh on oil consumption growth.
Although oil consumption will still grow, the EIA forecast it will grow by less than 1 million bpd in 2025 and 2026, which would be three consecutive years below 1 million bpd. During the two decades before the pandemic, world oil consumption grew by an average of 1.3 million bpd.
The biggest forecast slowdown in oil consumption growth is in Asia. Compared with the EIA’s January STEO, when it forecasted oil consumption growth in Asia to average 0.7 million bpd over 2025 and 2026, it now expects consumption growth will slow to average 0.5 million bpd over those years.
The EIA forecasts smaller changes in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Globally, it has revised its world oil consumption growth forecasts down by 0.4 million bpd from the January STEO for 2025 and by 0.1 million bpd for 2026.
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/16052025/eia-forecasts-slowed-world-oil-consumption-growth/
You might also like
Hydrocarbon Engineering Podcast
Leakhena Swett, President of the International Liquid Terminals Association (ILTA), and Jay Cruz, Senior Director of Government Affairs and Communications, join us to consider the key role that industry associations have to play in the sectors that they serve.
Oil product deliveries from Exolum to Spainish market increase
Deliveries of oil products from Exolum terminals to the Spanish market increased by 7.1% in April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
