Wood Mackenzie: what next for Qatar, Iran and the world's largest gas field?

The scale of the disruption reflects the concentration of risk built into a single shared structure. North Field and South Pars together span around 9000 km² on the Qatar Arch. The damage has cascaded across the entire value chain, from upstream production through to LNG liquefaction and export infrastructure. Wood Mackenzie is publishing this analysis ahead of Gastech 2026 in Bangkok, Thailand, where the industry is convening as those consequences continue to develop.

On the Qatari side, strikes on the Pearl GTL complex in March 2026 and an explosion at the Barzan gas plant in June 2026 removed around 4.5 billion ft³/d of gas-processing capacity: two LNG trains totalling 12.7 million tpy, one GTL train, and Barzan's domestic lean-gas processing. The outages account for roughly 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity. The Barzan shutdown alone removes 35% of Qatar's 4 billion ft³/d domestic gas supply. Wood Mackenzie estimates combined repair costs at US$5.8 billion in real terms, with recovery timelines running from four to twelve months. Around 10% of Shell's upstream cash flow is at risk from the Pearl GTL outage alone.

Iran's position is structurally different and no less serious. Strikes on the Assaluyeh processing hub, which handles around 30% of South Pars output, and on Phase 13 facilities at Kangan have disrupted production across multiple field phases. South Pars supplies 40 - 50% of Iran's fuel demand and around 80% of its power generation. The country has no LNG export infrastructure, no meaningful energy diversification, and peak summer gas demand that surges to over 11 billion ft³/d. Iran relies on liquid fuels to cover any supply shortfall, a gap the current disruption is widening.

"Qatar is managing US$5.8 billion in repairs and recovery timelines of up to twelve months while commissioning the largest LNG expansion programme in the world,” said Alexandre Araman, Director, Middle East Upstream, Wood Mackenzie. That timing matters because 54 million tpy of uncontracted Qatari volumes will reach the market by 2035, and buyers are making long-term security decisions right now. What this conflict has done is turn a well-understood geographical concentration risk into an operational reality across the entire value chain, from wellhead to export terminal."

The consequences will become visible in trade flows. Qatar exported more than 80 million t of LNG in 2025, with India receiving 11.9 million t, Taiwan 8.2 million t, and Europe accounting for just 11% of total supply. North Field East, North Field South, and North Field West were set to add a combined 48 million tpy of new liquefaction capacity and lift plateau production to 28 billion ft³/d by 2033, opening up uncontracted volumes that Wood Mackenzie expects to reach 54 million tpy by 2035. The pace of infrastructure restoration will now directly shape how that contracting window develops and how buyers weigh their long-term supply security options.

The field's reach extends beyond LNG. Qatar's North Field underpins a downstream industrial complex that includes condensate refining, NGLs, methanol, ammonia, and gas-to-liquids output. It also supplies around one-third of global helium demand and produces sulphur feeding international industrial and agricultural markets.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/gas-processing/17092026/wood-mackenzie-what-next-for-qatar-iran-and-the-worlds-largest-gas-field/