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Gasoline prices expected to average US$ 3.57/gal. for Summer 2014

Hydrocarbon Engineering,

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that regular grade gasoline retail prices will average US$ 3.57/gal. for the summer of 2014 (April through September) driving season. This is similar to the US$ 3.58/gal. average of summer 2013.

After rising into May, the retail price is expected to fall through the remainder of the summer because both crude oil prices and gasoline crack spreads decline.

The national average regular grade gasoline retail price was US$ 3.60/gal. on 7th April. Most of the expected increase from the current price over the next several weeks will be attributable to an increase in crack spreads as a result of typical seasonal factors such as refinery maintenance and the switch to summer grade gasoline, which is more costly to produce than winter grade gasoline.

Retail prices are expected to decline gradually from May, to an average of US$ 3.46/gal. in September. Falling gasoline crack spreads are expected to be a major driver in the reduction in prices. The expected decrease in crack spreads is to be the result of a projected increase in crude oil throughput at refineries, which add supplies to the market.

Gasoline stocks

This summer, gasoline stocks are projected to remain almost unchanged, compared with a 31 000 bpd draw last summer. As a result total gasoline inventories are expected to end the summer at 215 million bbl, 4 million bbl below last year’s level but 1 million bbl above the previous five year average. 

Adapted from a press release by Emma McAleavey.

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