In the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) global demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.2 million bpd in 2016 after surging to a five year high of 1.8 million bpd in 2015. Momentum will ease towards its long-term trend as recent props such as sharply lower oil prices, colder winter weather and post-recessionary bounces in some countries are likely to give way.
Global oil supplies breached 97 million bpd in October, as non-OPEC output recovered from lower levels than the previous month. Despite the resilience of producers such as Russia, non-OPEC supply is forecast to contract by more than 0.6 million bpd next year. US light tight oil (LTO), the driver of non-OPEC growth, is expected to decline by 0.6 million bpd in 2016.
OPEC crude supply held steady in October at 31.76 million bpd, with declines in Iraq and Kuwait offset by higher supply from Libya, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. A slight tightening in fundamentals lifts the 2016 ‘call’ on OPEC by 0.2 million bpd from October’s OMR to 31.3 million bpd.
OECD commercial inventories rose counter-seasonally by 13.8 million b to stand at a record near three billion barrels by the end of September. The pace of global stockbuilding slowed during the third quarter to 1.6 million bpd from 2.3 million bpd in the second quarter but remained significantly above the historical average.
Global refinery runs sank by 1.2 million bpd in October to 78.2 million bpd with seasonal maintenance in full swing, leading to a significant reduction in annual throughput growth. Margins edged lower in October versus September but remained robust despite high product stocks.
Adapted from press release by Francesca Brindle
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/special-reports/13112015/iea-november-oil-market-report/