BMI has said that the global forecast for refined fuels demand and supply is not going to be sufficient to support the plans that Azerbaijan has for its refining sector. There are currently plans to upgrade the existing processing capacity to comply with Euro 5 standards and this is part of a broader plan to expand the country’s entire downstream segment.
When it comes to Azerbaijan’s gas sector, BMI believes it is set for strong growth which will be driven partly by the development of the Shah Deniz II project.
Cambodia is currently building an oil sector from scratch as it is looking to exploit and tap potential resources. Movement is however slow going as the country does not, according to BMI, have a thorough understanding of geology and hydrocarbons potential and the country also does not have any hydrocarbon laws which are needed to help establish it with competitive geographic neighbours such as Thailand and Vietnam.
Progress is being made in the downstream sector as the country’s first refinery is expected to come online in 2018. BMI expect Cambodia’s refined products consumption to grow rapidly over the next 10 years driven by population increase, strong economic performance and the tourism industry. Refined fuels consumption is expected to grow by 5% year on year from 47 500 bpd in 2013 to 77 260 bpd by 2023.
Due to the fact that Hong Kong does not house any energy resources, BMI says it is going to be required to meet growing oil and gas demand through imports alone. Hong Kong does have the ability to fall back on China to help fulfil energy demand, however the nation is very aware of falling in to a state of over reliance.
BMI has said that the rate of refined products demand growth and imports will most likely match underlying GDP trends and the expansion is anticipated to be moderate over the coming years as Hong Kong is home to a mature economy. Demand is expected to rise from 354 000 bpd this year to 439 000 bpd by 2018 and a maximum of 535 950 bpd by 2023. The cost of importing all products is at US$ 14.1 billion for this year, rising to US$ 16 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach US$ 19.8 billion in 2023.
Papua New Guinea
The LNG sector in PNG is vibrant as the ExxonMobil PNG LNG facility is already operating and is looking to commence some contracts early. Also, there are two further LNG projects expected to come online in the next 10 years led by Osaka Gas and Total. The country of course has a higher investment in gas than oil due to the influx of large LNG projects.
The current political situation in Thailand is, according to BMI, clouding the petrochemicals outlook for the country. Also, export oriented hope is being squashed by the slow growth in China. The current political crisis in the country is limiting the growth potential in Thailand’s petrochemical sector as well as the potential in the infrastructure and construction sectors. However, overseas investment by Thai petrochemicals companies in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Nigeria are expected to add some aid to the struggling domestic market.
BMI predicts strong growth in gas production in the country over the coming years and anticipates levels of 108.8 billion m3/y being hit by 2018. When it comes to oil in the country, there is still a high dependency which leads to high prices and volatility in export revenues.
The avenue seeing a lot of development in the country however appears to be petrochemicals. Turkmenistan has secured loans, reported by BMI, worth US$2.5 billion from Japanese and South Korean credit banks to build a petrochemical complex in Turmenbashi. Further funds for this project will come from Turkmenistan banks, Japan bank and TurkmenGaz. The facility will consist of a gas separation plant and ethylene and polypropylene production plants. There are also plans to build a petrochemical complex in the country under which Toyo Engineering and a consortium of engineering firms have already been awarded a contract. The facility will consist of a gas separation unit with a 5 billion m3/y capacity, an ethylene production unit and a polypropylene production unit.
Edited from report briefs by Claira Lloyd
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/28112014/oil-gas-petchem-asia-bmi/