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What the stats say about crude oil exports

Hydrocarbon Engineering,


Below are some of the statistics that look at the benefits of US crude exports.

Aspen/MAPI

  • US$165 billion increase in GDP in 2019 – 2021.
  • 650 000 jobs added at peak in 2019.
  • Real household income increases of US$2000 – 3000 /household in 2025.
  • All manufacturing jobs would see an average gain of 37 000 /y through 2025.
  • Construction jobs would grow by over 217 000 in the peak year 2017.
  • Related professional services jobs would grow by an average of 148 000 /y.
  • Capital investment for machinery would increase by US$7 billion in 2020.

Brookings/NERA

  • Boost in economic growth, wages, employment, trade and overall welfare.
  • Throughout 2015 – 2039, GDP could rise by US$550 billion – US$1.8 trillion.
  • Production could rise by 1.3 million – 2.9 million bpd in 2020.
  • Unemployment could on an annual average fall 200 000 – 400 000 from 2015 – 2020.

Columbia

  • Crude oil production could increase anywhere between 0 and 1.2 million bpd between now and 2025.
  • Domestic gasoline prices would likely fall by 10 – 12 cents/gal.
  • US credibility in current and future trade negotiations would be enhanced.

ICF International and EnSys Energy

  • Up to US$5.8 billion estimated reduced consumer fuel costs year 2015 – 2035.
  • Up to US$70 billion more investment by 2020.
  • Up to 500 00 bpd increase in domestic crude oil production by 2020.
  • Up to US$38 billion projected GDP gain in 2020.
  • Up to 300 000 potential job gains in 2020.
  • US$13.5 billion estimated government revenues increase in 2020.
  • US$22 billion estimated reduction of trade deficit in 2020.
  • 100 000 bpd increased in refinery throughput between 2015 – 2035.

IHS

  • Crude oil production would increase 1.2 million bpd average 2016 – 2030.
  • US economy to support an average of 394 000 more jobs 2016 – 2030 with 964 000 jobs in 2018 when at its peak.
  • GDP would rise by nearly US$73 billion in 2016.
  • GPD would rise by over US$134 billion in 2018.
  • Total government revenues would rise by US$1.3 trillion between 2016 and 2030.
  • Average disposable income per household would increase by an additional US$391 in 2018.

Adapted from report by Claira Lloyd

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/28052015/stats-favouring-us-crude-exports/


 

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