What’s being said about US crude exports

Industry experts

Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz,“[export restrictions] deserve some new analysis and examination in the context of what is now an energy world that is no longer like the 1970s.”

“Those restrictions on exports were borne, as was the Department of Energy and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, on oil disruptions. There are lots of issues in the energy space that deserve some new analysis.”

Maria van der Hoeven, IEA Executive Director, “some may see this as a choice between keeping American oil within US borders for reasons of economic security and allowing the US to generate billions of dollars in new export revenues. But market realities suggest a far simpler decision ahead: either US crude is shipped abroad or it stays in the ground.”

IHS Vice Chairman, Daniel Yergin, “lifting the ban on crude exports would be a signal of US commitment to global energy security. For four decades the US government urged other countries’ free flow of energy but it didn’t matter that we had a ban on US export of crude oil. But you know what, it matters now…All the rationales for the export ban are gone, but the ban is still there.”

Rusty Braziel, Center for Strategic and International Studies, “the rules that were established to be able to handle the exports of these hydrocarbons were all established back in the shortage days. In the olden days, these laws and rules didn’t make any difference. Now in a world of exports, they do.”

Citigroup

MD of Commodity Research, Ed Morse, “it is incontrovertible that if the US exported crude the price of gasoline would be lower. And it is incontrovertible that the trading interests of the US have become increasingly dominated by energy.”

Analyst, Seth Kleinman, “if lower gasoline prices for the US consumer are a desired aim, the US should be exporting crude, and lowering Brent and hence global gasoline prices in the process.”

Politics

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, “an energy independent and net exporter of energy as a nation has the potential to change the security environment around the world, notably in Europe and in the Middle East.”

Larry Summers, Former Obama Economic Advisor, “I would suggest to you that the principle that we shouldn’t have prohibitions without a reason is a reason to permit oil exports. The economic growth consequences is a reason to permit oil exports. The environmental calculus, all things considered, points towards permitting oil exports. The geopolitics of how should the world’s largest oil producer behave speaks in favour of permitting oil exports. All four things together speak overwhelmingly in favour of permitting oil exports.”

Studies

HIS, US Crude Oil Export Decision: Assessing the Impact of the Export Ban and Free Trade on the US Economy, “lifting the 1970s era restrictions on US crude oil exports would lead to further increases in domestic oil production, resulting in lower gasoline prices while supporting nearly 1 million additional jobs at the peak…It would lead to a total of US$746 billion in additional investment during the study period and an average of 1.2 million bpd more oil production per year, the study finds. The additional crude oil supply would lower gasoline prices by an annual average of 8 cents/gal…The combined savings for US motorists during the 2016 – 2030 period would translate to US$265 billion compared to a situation where the restrictive trade policy remains in place. The increased economic activity resulting from the rise in crude production would support an average of 394 000 additional US jobs per, with highs of 811 000 additional jobs supported in 2017 and a peak of 964 000 jobs in 2018.”

Columbia University, Navigating the US Oil Export Debate, “[permitting exports] will likely decrease the price Americans pay for gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products and benefit the US economy as a whole…Allowing exports would make the US more resilient, not less, to supply disruptions elsewhere in the world.”

Government Accountability Office, Changing Crude Oil Markets, “removing export restrictions is expected to increase the size of the economy, with implications for employment, investment, public revenue, and trade…Consumer fuel prices, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, could decrease as a result of removing crude oil export restrictions.”

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Crude Oil Export Ban Benefits Some…but Not All, “analyses in several export ban studies suggest that higher US oil prices would spur greater drilling for oil and cause US production to grow at a rate faster than if the export ban remained. This would increase the supply of oil available on the world market and lead to greater production of gasoline and diesel fuels, lowering their prices and benefiting US consumers…To the extent that the ban discourages drilling, this limits the potential supply of oil available to be processed into gasoline and diesel, placing upward pressure on retail fuel prices.”

Resources for the Future, Ending the Export Ban: What It Means for US Gasoline Prices, “our basic finding is that the efficiency of global refinery operations would be improved a little if the ban on US exports of crude oil were to be lifted. And, accordingly, gasoline production would go up and its price in the US would fall.”

Adapted from report by Claira Lloyd

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