PIRA Energy Group has said that the vast majority of the bearish news is now out and that the price lows for global crude oil markers are in. In the US, stocks build but surplus to last year narrows. For Japan, PIRA has said that crude and finished product stocks build, amid higher demands.
- The current trajectory to crude stocks peas in May, and then draws commence June – August.
- Supply disruptions will remain high for the foreseeable future.
- Any final deal with Iran will not result in significantly higher volumes until much later in 2015 at the earliest.
- The US had another hefty stock build this past week.
- Over half of the year on year increase is in crude oil, the bulk of the rest is in other products.
- Gasoline and distillate stocks are each 15 – 17 million bbls above last year.
- Propane inventories continued to climb in the offseason.
- Propane inventories are 31 million bbls higher than a year ago.
- Inventories of other NGLs and LRGs increased by 2.7 million bbls.
- Ethanol prices gained the week ending April 17.
- Ethanol demand was strong as blenders prepare for the peak driving season.
- Crude runs increased slightly and crude imports rose.
- Finished product stocks built.
- Gasoline and gasoil demand increased, but with a slight stock build for gasoline and a more significant stock build for gasoil.
- Kerosene demand rose.
- The indicative refining margin eased on the week but still remains statistically strong.
- So far this year, spot tanker markets have eluded the seasonal decline.
- Firm spot tanker rates helped by rising OPEC output and cheap bunkers propelled first quarter earnings.
- Floating storage has not yet materialised to any significant degree.
- A current overhang of West African crude could produce some floating stocks.
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/28042015/oil-market-recap/