PIRA Energy Group has said that the peak in the crude oil surplus has passed. In the US commercial stocks hit new record levels as surplus fell again and in Japan, crude runs rebounded.
- The peak in the crude oil surplus has passed.
- Product stocks are expected to grow in the coming months.
- The transition from crude surplus to more of a product surplus will begin to pressure refinery margins lower.
- Gasoline cracks should remain healthy for the next several months.
- Middle distillate cracks will ease, with new refinery startups.
- Total commercial stocks built in the last week to a new record high.
- Last week’s stock build was less than half of last year’s build.
- June of last year is when commercial stocks began to approach the too if the five year range.
- Octane values have recently spiked.
- Ethanol prices plummeted the week ending June 12.
- Ethanol manufacturing margins fell for the fourth consecutive week.
- Ethanol production fell for the first time in six weeks during the week ending June 12.
- Ethanol output was still at the second highest rate of the year.
- Crude runs recovered almost one third of the drop from the previous week.
- Crude imports were very low and crude stocks drew.
- Finished product stocks also drew.
- There were draws on all the major products other than kerosene.
- Demand performance was mixed across products, but aggregate demand was higher.
- The indicative refining margins remains very good.
- Gasoline and naphtha cracks have firmed.
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/25062015/oil-market-recap-june/