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IEA January Oil Market Report

Hydrocarbon Engineering,

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report (OMR) for January, macroeconomic weakness continues to restrain global oil demand growth, with fourth quarter 2014 deliveries estimated just 0.6 million bpd above year earlier levels. Despite lower prices, with Brent crude futures near a six year low, demand growth is forecast to accelerate only 0.9 million bpd in 2015, unchanged from the outlook in the December report.

The oil selloff has cut expectations of 2015 non-OPEC supply growth by 350 000 bpd since last month, to 950 000 bpd. Effects on North American supply are so far limited to 95 000 bpd and 80 000 bpd to the Canadian and US forecasts, respectively. Projections are cut by 175 000 bpd for Colombia and 30 000 bpd for Russia.

OPEC output rose by 80 000 bpd in December to 30.48 million bpd, as Iraqi supply surged to 35 year highs, offsetting deeper losses in Libya. Downward revisions to the non-OPEC supply outlook raise the ‘call’ on OPEC for the second half of 2015 to an average 29.8 million bpd – just shy of OPEC’s official target of 30 million bpd.

Global refinery crude throughputs surged to a record high of 78.9 million bpd in December, lifting the fourth quarter 2014 estimate to 78.2 million bpd. But throughputs are forecast to ease seasonally to 77.8 million bpd in the current quarter amid brimming product inventories, weakening margins, lower demand and increased refinery maintenance.

Adapted from a press release by Emma McAleavey.

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