Due to Canada’s vast reserves, BMI sees a positive outlook for the country’s oil and gas sector. However, it has said that upstream and midstream are in need or a greater amount of support from government and communities in order to develop infrastructure. Project economics is one big factor that could impact the construction of this infrastructure, according to BMI, and could also hamper the growth of the oilsands. Canada’s proven oil reserves are anticipated to trend lower from 173.2 billion bbls at the start of this year to 168.4 billion bbls in 2018. This will be due to a slowdown in investment in the oilsands according to BMI. BMI do not anticipate levels dropping much further than the expected 2018 figure due to new shale developments in the country.
Canada has considerable natural gas export potential, and seven LNG terminals are in the process of being approved by the National Energy Board. Proven gas reserves are expected to increase from 1.89 trillion m3 at the start of this year to 1.93 trillion me in 2018 due to shale deposits. It is also likely that this level will remain up to 2023.
Liquids production is expected to grow by 150 000 bpd this year due to new projects that are both conventional and unconventional. Growth is then expected to continue to levels of 4.53 million bpd by 2018 and 4.84 billion bpd by 2023.
BMI has said that the ongoing energy reform in Mexico is the start of a fundamental shift for the country’s hydrocarbon sector. However, it will take a number of years, according to BMI, before the results of this reform are fully realised. The first public tender in the country is expected to provide a geological mix of prospective oil blocks as part of an international bid. The areas on offer are both in deep water, are shale areas and part of the non-conventional Chicontepec basin.
Looking downstream, Pemex has announced plans to spend US$ 5.5 billion on new opportunities that will be open to foreign players in Mexico’s midstream and downstream sectors. The planned projects are expected to draw strong interest internationally and will do nothing but increase as the country continues to reform its energy sector.
The US is going to continue to lead gains in non-OPEC oil production, according to BMI. The company forecast crude oil and NGLs production to increase from 2014 levels of 12.2 million bpd to 2023 levels of 14.7 million bpd. However, this growth is anticipated to moderate towards the 2023 boundary due to depletion rates, a glut in the sweet crude market and lower oil prices. When it comes to US consumption, BMI has said that patterns have gone through a structural shift over the last four tears to greater efficiency and economy of fuel. BMI expects the demand for gasoline to decline in the coming years but total fuels consumption will see a small portion of growth overall due to gains in consumption of distillates and LPG.
Natural gas production is anticipated to accelerate next year but will become more pronounced from 2016, as LNG terminals as well as petrochemical plants and new gas fired power plants are expected to come online. Looking midstream, BMI has said that there are a lot of activity as operators react to the supply dynamics that are constantly changing in the US.
When it comes to petrochemicals, BMI has said that the industry is continuing to expand on the back of growth in ethane availability due to the shale boom. Also as exports and domestic demand grows, industrial growth is also firming up and is giving a positive overall picture for the petrochemicals sector in the medium term. However, BMI has warned that a global glut in capacity as a result of new crackers in the US will put pressure on margins in the long term.
Edited from report briefs by Claira Lloyd
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/14112014/oil-gas-petchem-north-america-bmi/