EIA publishes November 2025 'Short-Term Energy Outlook'

Oil production, inventory, and prices

EIA expects crude oil prices to fall through the end of 2025 and to average US$55/bbl in 2026. The expected decrease in prices is the result of global oil inventories rising through 2026 as global oil production grows faster than demand for petroleum fuels.

EIA slightly revised its forecast for US oil production upward in 2025 and 2026, reflecting higher-than-expected US crude oil production in the Petroleum Supply Monthly with data for August. EIA expects domestic oil production to average 13.6 million bpd in 2025 and 2026, up from its previous forecast of 13.5 million bpd in both years.

US gasoline and diesel prices

EIA expects US gasoline prices to fall to an average of US$3/gal. in 2026, down 10% from 2024, and diesel prices to fall to US$3.50/gal. in 2026, down 7% from 2024. The price of crude oil typically accounts for about half of the price of gasoline and diesel. EIA expects that as the price of oil comes down, so will its share of fuel prices. EIA forecasts the price of crude oil to account for a 43% share of the price of gasoline and 36% of the price of diesel in 2026.

Natural gas prices

The Henry Hub natural gas spot price in EIA’s forecast rises to an average of US$3.90/million Btu this winter following seasonal patterns of prices rising during the winter to meet space heating demand. EIA expects prices to average US$4.00/million Btu in 2026, which would be about 16% higher than in 2025.

LNG exports

EIA expects the US will export 14.9 billion ft³/d of LNG this year, which is 25% more than last year. LNG exports will then rise by an additional 10% in 2026. In EIA’s forecast for 2025 LNG exports, Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana has ramped up exports more quickly than expected, causing EIA to raise its forecast of LNG exports in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 3%.

Electricity demand

EIA expects US electricity demand to grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, led by growth in the West South Central region as electricity demand from data centres and cryptocurrency mining facilities increases in that region—particularly in Texas.

Coal production

EIA forecasts coal production to surpass 530 million short t in 2025 and then decrease to about 500 million short t in 2026. EIA revised its forecast for 2026 coal production slightly higher than in its October forecast, resulting from the reopening of three mines in the Appalachia region and EIA’s assumption that coal-fired power plants will not draw down stocks as much as previously forecast.

Winter Fuels Outlook update

EIA updated its forecast for winter heating costs and continues to expect that US household heating costs will vary based on retail prices of different heating fuels this winter. EIA will update this forecast every month through March 2026.

The full November 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available here.

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