The IEA’s Oil Market Report for this month has cut the outlook for 2015 global oil demand growth by 230 000 bpd to 0.9 billion bpd on lower expectations for the Former Soviet Union and other oil exporting countries. The report has also said that a strong dollar and the lifting of subsidies have so far limited supportive price effects on demand, which is now seen reaching 93.3 million bpd next year, from 92.4 million bpd this year.
Global production dropped by 340 000 bpd in November to 94.1 million bpd on lower OPEC supplies. Annual gains of 2.1 million bpd were split evenly between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Surging US light tight oil supply looks set to push total non-OPEC output to record growth of 1.9 million bpd for 2014, but the pace is expected to slow to 1.3 million bpd for 2015. OPEC crude supply declined by 315 000 bpd in November to 30.32 million bpd after Libya’s recovery stumbled, but it stood 765 000 bpd higher than in November 2013. The call on OPEC crude and stock change for 2015 was revised down by 300 000 bpd to 28.9 million bpd. The call is expected to decline seasonally by 1.2 million bpd from this quarter to the first quarter of 2015.
Global refinery crude runs bounced back in November from a seasonal low of 76.8 million bpd in October. The estimate of throughputs this quarter has been revised sharply higher since the previous Oil Market Report to 76.8 million bpd as refiners apparently took advantage of healthy margins ahead of a flurry of refinery startups expected early next year.
OECD industry stocks reportedly built counter seasonally in October to 2 720 million bpd, their highest level in more than two years. Stocks ended at a surplus to their five year average for the first time since March 2013. Rising crude supply and peak seasonal refinery maintenance saw crude stocks surge by 34.4 million bbls and product stocks fall by 30.7 million bbls.
Edited from press release by Claira Lloyd
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