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US petroleum and other liquids

Hydrocarbon Engineering,

  • Although crude oil prices are projected to be relatively flat in the coming months, the spring switchover from winter grade to summer grade gasoline is expected to contribute to a slight increase in US regular gasoline retail prices.
  • EIA expects US retail gasoline prices to average US$2.40 /gal. for the whole of this year.
  • EIA is providing monthly data on rail movements of crude oil, which have significantly increased over the past five years.
  • Total movements of crude oil by rail within the US and between the US and Canada were more than 1 million bpd in 2014.
  • In January 2015, shipments from PADD 2 to PADD 1 accounted for approximately 40% of total crude oil shipped via rail in the US.

Liquid fuels consumption

  • Total US liquid fuels consumption rose by an estimated 700 000 bpd in 2014.
  • In 2015, total liquid fuels consumption is forecast to grow by 330 000 bpd.
  • EIA projects that in 2016, liquid fuels consumption growth will slow to 90 000 bpd.
  • Motor gasoline consumption is projected to increase by 150 000 bpd this year and fall by 70 000 bpd next year.
  • EIA revised the gasoline consumption forecasts upward by 70 000 bpd in 2015 and by 50 000 bpd in 2016 due to the larger than expected growth in gasoline consumption over the last six months.
  • Over the past six months, gasoline consumption increased by an average of 2.7% from the same period last year.
  • HGL consumption is projected to increase by 110 000 bpd in both 2015 and 2016.
  • New HGL export terminal capacity is to contribute to an increase in HGL net exports from an average of 560 000 bpd in 2014 to 1 million bpd in 2016.

Liquid fuels supply

  • US crude oil production is projected to increase to 9.2 million bpd in 2015 and 9.3 million bpd in 2016.
  • The reduction in the crude oil production forecast reflects rig counts falling faster than EIA had initially expected, as oil directed rigs have declined to the lowest level in more than four years as of last March.
  • With WTI crude oil prices expected to average US$48/bbl in the second quarter of this year, EIA expects 2015 onshore production to decline beginning in that period because of unattractive economic returns in some areas of both emerging and mature oil production regions.
  • Projected 2015 oil prices remain high enough to support continued development drilling activity in the core areas of the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and Permian basins.
  • EIA expects US crude oil production to reach 9.4 million bpd in the second quarter of 2015, then decline by 210 000 bpd in the third.
  • HGL production at natural gas processing plants, which reached a record high of 3.1 million bpd in October, is projected to average 3.2 million bpd in 2015 and 3.5 million bpd in 2016.
  • The growth in domestic crude oil and other liquids production has contributed to a significant decline in imports.

Edited from report by Claira Lloyd

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