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Global petroleum and other liquids

Hydrocarbon Engineering,


  • Global production continues to exceed demand, resulting in inventory builds.
  • Global oil inventory builds are projected to average 1.7 million bpd through the first half of this year.
  • The expected inventory builds this year are on top of an estimated average 10 million bpd increase last year.

Consumption

  • EIA estimates that global consumption grew by 0.9 million bpd in 2014, averaging 92 million bpd for the year.
  • EIA expects global consumption will grow by 1 million bpd this year and by 1.1 million bpd in 2016.
  • Consumption outside of the OECD is projected to grow by 0.8 million bpd in 2015 and 1.1 million bpd in 2016.
  • Russian oil consumption is expected to decline in 2016.
  • China remains the main source of non-OECD oil consumption growth, with a projected annual average increase of 0.3 million bpd both this year and next.
  • OECD consumption is expected to grow by 0.2 million bpd this year and then stay relatively flat in 2016.
  • Japan and Europe accounted for almost the entire 2014 decline in OECD oil consumption.

Non-OPEC

  • EIA estimates that non-OPEC production grew by 2.2 million bpd last year.
  • EIA expects non-OPEC production to grow by 0.7 million bpd in 2015 and 0.4 million bpd in 2016.
  • The slower growth in total non-OPEC supply is largely attributable to slower production growth in the US and Canada and declining production in Europe and Eurasia.
  • Production in Eurasia is projected to decline by more than 0.1 million bpd in 2016.
  • Unplanned supply disruptions among non-OPEC producers averaged 0.6 million bpd in March this year.
  • South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen accounted for nearly 90% of total non-OPEC supply disruptions in March.
  • EIA estimates that unplanned non-OPEC supply disruptions averaged 0.6 million bpd in 2014.

OPEC

  • EIA estimates that OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.1 million bpd in 2014.
  • In EIA’s forecast, OPEC crude oil production rises by 0.1 million bpd this year and falls by 0.5 million bpd next year.
  • Iraq is the largest contributor to OPEC production growth over the forecast period.
  • OPEC non-crude liquids production, which averaged 6.3 million bpd in 2014, is expected to increase by 0.2 million bpd in 2015 and 0.1 million bpd in 2016.
  • In March, unplanned crude oil supply disruptions among OPEC producers averaged 2.3 million bpd, a decrease of 0.2 million bpd compared with the previous month.
  • Unplanned OPEC crude supply disruptions averaged 2.4 million bpd in 2014.
  • EIA expects OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity to increase to an annual average of 2.1 million bpd in 2015 and 2.6 million bpd in 2016.
  • Surplus capacity is typically an indication of market conditions, and surplus capacity below 2.5 million bpd is an indicator of a relatively tight market.

OECD petroleum inventories

  • EIA estimates that OECD commercial oil inventories totalled 2.72 billion bbls at the end of 2014.
  • Projected OECD oil inventories rise to 2.88 billion bbls at the end of this year and fall slightly to 2.87 billion bbls at the end of 2016.

Edited from report by Claira Lloyd

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/09042015/global-petroleum-other-liquids/


 

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