- Global production continues to exceed demand, resulting in inventory builds.
- Global oil inventory builds are projected to average 1.7 million bpd through the first half of this year.
- The expected inventory builds this year are on top of an estimated average 10 million bpd increase last year.
- EIA estimates that global consumption grew by 0.9 million bpd in 2014, averaging 92 million bpd for the year.
- EIA expects global consumption will grow by 1 million bpd this year and by 1.1 million bpd in 2016.
- Consumption outside of the OECD is projected to grow by 0.8 million bpd in 2015 and 1.1 million bpd in 2016.
- Russian oil consumption is expected to decline in 2016.
- China remains the main source of non-OECD oil consumption growth, with a projected annual average increase of 0.3 million bpd both this year and next.
- OECD consumption is expected to grow by 0.2 million bpd this year and then stay relatively flat in 2016.
- Japan and Europe accounted for almost the entire 2014 decline in OECD oil consumption.
- EIA estimates that non-OPEC production grew by 2.2 million bpd last year.
- EIA expects non-OPEC production to grow by 0.7 million bpd in 2015 and 0.4 million bpd in 2016.
- The slower growth in total non-OPEC supply is largely attributable to slower production growth in the US and Canada and declining production in Europe and Eurasia.
- Production in Eurasia is projected to decline by more than 0.1 million bpd in 2016.
- Unplanned supply disruptions among non-OPEC producers averaged 0.6 million bpd in March this year.
- South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen accounted for nearly 90% of total non-OPEC supply disruptions in March.
- EIA estimates that unplanned non-OPEC supply disruptions averaged 0.6 million bpd in 2014.
- EIA estimates that OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.1 million bpd in 2014.
- In EIA’s forecast, OPEC crude oil production rises by 0.1 million bpd this year and falls by 0.5 million bpd next year.
- Iraq is the largest contributor to OPEC production growth over the forecast period.
- OPEC non-crude liquids production, which averaged 6.3 million bpd in 2014, is expected to increase by 0.2 million bpd in 2015 and 0.1 million bpd in 2016.
- In March, unplanned crude oil supply disruptions among OPEC producers averaged 2.3 million bpd, a decrease of 0.2 million bpd compared with the previous month.
- Unplanned OPEC crude supply disruptions averaged 2.4 million bpd in 2014.
- EIA expects OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity to increase to an annual average of 2.1 million bpd in 2015 and 2.6 million bpd in 2016.
- Surplus capacity is typically an indication of market conditions, and surplus capacity below 2.5 million bpd is an indicator of a relatively tight market.
OECD petroleum inventories
- EIA estimates that OECD commercial oil inventories totalled 2.72 billion bbls at the end of 2014.
- Projected OECD oil inventories rise to 2.88 billion bbls at the end of this year and fall slightly to 2.87 billion bbls at the end of 2016.
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