PIRA Energy Group has said that crude stock draws have already started and will pick up momentum in the third quarter of this year. In the US, crude and product stocks showed builds while in Japan crude runs fell marginally and imports dropped back.
- Wage gains in the developed world are going to drive faster second half global economic growth.
- The worst of the oil market imbalance is over.
- Crude stock draws have already begun and will pick up momentum in Q3.
- Longer term supply/demand fundamentals are bullish.
- The US is becoming a big factor in the NGL market.
- MENA geopolitical risks to supply remain substantial.
- Oil markets are expected to have to wait until 2016 for more Iranian oil.
- OPEC and Saudi crude production are near record levels.
- Commercial stocks built this past week, as both crude and products showed builds.
- Total demand growth remains strong, including gasoline and distillate.
- April and current weekly reported crude production values are considered too high.
- NGL field production has been increasing at accelerating rates.
- Year on year NGL production increases have been running between 13 and 15% for each month of this year so far.
- US ethanol prices strengthened during the last half of June.
- Ethanol production dropped to a six week low.
- Ethanol inventories have plummeted by nearly 1.2 million bbls over the past two weeks.
- Crude runs fell marginally and imports dropped back such that crude stocks corrected lower.
- Major product demand performance was much stronger.
- All the major finished product stocks levels declined.
- The indicative refining margin remains very good.
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