Fitch: low natural gas prices are good

The record low natural gas prices recently reported will continue to benefit most public power and electric cooperative issuers, Fitch Ratings says. Fuel and interest costs are among the largest expense items incurred by public power utilities. Higher interest rates could offset some of the price benefits over the long term.

Low natural gas prices are expected to support strong operating margins and provide headroom for rate increases necessary to mitigate other escalating costs and, in some cases, lower total charges to ratepayers.

On 15 December 2015, natural gas prices fell to levels last seen in 1999. Fitch lowered its 2016 forecast assumption for US natural gas earlier this year to US$3.25/ft³, reflecting increasingly efficient US shale production and lagging demand growth. Fitch's longer term price forecast was lowered to US$3.75/ft³ from US$4.50/ft³, with stress case prices falling below US$3.00/ft³, in most years. Operating efficiencies have also driven Fitch's 2016 base case price for crude oil to US$60/bbl. Although oil-fired generation accounts for less than 1% of total US energy production, prices will continue to influence natural gas fundamentals and, to a lesser extent, electricity consumption.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25% to 0.5%, and forecasted a rate of 1.375% by the end of 2016. Short term rates at this level will not have an impact on public power issuers as the median ratio of variable rate debt to total debt totals only 9.0% for the entire Fitch-rated portfolio of public power issuers. Nearly all of the debt issued throughout the sector since 2009 has been fixed rate, including 98% of 2015 issuance through June.

Adapted from press release by Francesca Brindle

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