Jet fuel takes largest share of 2024 US refinery output

Motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel make up more than 85% of US refinery output, with gasoline making up the largest share and distillate fuel oil making up the second largest. Refiners can shift yields among those three products in response to market conditions but are limited by refinery configuration, crude oil inputs grades, and the high costs of modifying refinery infrastructure. Refinery yields reflect the volumetric ratio of a finished product to a refinery’s combined net inputs of crude oil and unfinished oils. Changes in US refinery yields reflect both changes at individual refineries and shifts in the US refining fleet due to refinery openings and closures.

Changes in demand are an important factor driving changes in refinery yields. Increased air travel, measured by both TSA passenger volume and flight departures, has increased US jet fuel consumption every year following the steep decline in 2020. Although jet fuel consumption has not yet recovered to its pre-pandemic 2019 volumes because of efficiency gains and changing flight patterns, among other factors, we expect jet fuel consumption will reach a record high in 2026, based on the March Short-Term Energy Outlook.

As the US refinery fleet shifted operations toward increased jet fuel production, the US refinery yield for motor gasoline decreased to its lowest share since 2015, the refinery yield for distillate fuel oil was about flat, and the refinery yield for residual fuel oil increased slightly from the previous year.

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