EIA project short-term US energy decrease and long-term increase

US energy consumption in 2050 is lower than in 2024 in most of the scenarios modelled in AEO2025, but the range of outcomes varies significantly based on the underlying assumptions in the scenarios EIA analysed.

AEO2025 explores long-term energy trends in the US. It relies on a reference case that assumes laws and regulations in effect as of December 2024 remain in effect through 2050. AEO2025 also includes scenario-based analyses of separate side cases that make various other assumptions about the energy sector:

• The alternative electricity case assumes electric generators can operate under regulations that existed prior to April 2024, when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) implemented a new rule targeting carbon dioxide emissions from new and existing generating units.
• The alternative transportation case assumes recent rules targeting vehicle fuel economy and emissions from the EPA, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and the California Air Resource Board are not in place.
• The high oil price case assumes the price of brent crude oil increases to US$155/bbl in 2050, compared with US$91/bbl in the reference case, and US$47/bbl in the low oil price case.
• The high oil and gas supply case assumes ultimate recovery for new tight oil, tight gas, or shale gas wells are 50% higher than in the reference case. The case also assumes 50% higher undiscovered resources in Alaska and offshore fields. Technological improvement is assumed to be 50% faster. The low oil and gas supply case assumes the converse.
• The low zero-carbon technology cost case assumes faster cost declines for zero-emissions electricity-generating technologies resulting in 40% lower costs in 2050 than in the reference case. The high zero-carbon technology cost case assumes no additional cost reductions with additional deployment.
• The high economic growth case assumes the compound annual growth rate for US GDP is 2.1% through 2050, compared with 1.2% in the low economic growth case and 1.8% in the reference case.

For AEO2025, EIA significantly updated the model that underpins the results, adding a hydrogen market module; a carbon capture, allocation, transportation, and sequestration module; and an enhanced upstream oil and natural gas resources module. EIA also enhanced many existing modules to better reflect market dynamics and emerging technologies.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/22042025/eia-project-short-term-us-energy-decrease-and-long-term-increase/