Editorial comment
At the end of August, ExxonMobil published ‘Global Outlook: Our view to 2050’, which offers the oil major’s perspectives on energy supply and demand over the next 25 years.1 The report imagines a world which is vastly different from today, in which a global population of 10 billion people use 15% more energy, less than half of which will be generated by oil and natural gas. Rapid growth in wind and solar will challenge the energy sector as the energy mix evolves, and carbon emissions will fall for the first time in 2030. Much of the forecast is as you’d expect: renewables will be the fastest growing sector in the energy market; the coal sector will decline the most; and oil and gas remain an essential part of the picture. But the report also includes a juicy bit about what would happen if the world stopped investing in oil and gas.
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In this imagined scenario, oil production falls by 15% annually (global oil supplies would fall by more than 15 million bpd in the first year), and within one year the world would experience a severe energy shortage. By 2030, oil supplies would fall from 100 million bpd to less than 30 million bpd. Oil prices would be expected to rise by more than 400% as a result of the shortfall, and within 10 years of no investment unemployment rates would likely reach 30% (higher than during the Great Depression of the 1930s). The verdict is that global oil and natural gas supplies would virtually disappear without continued investment. It’s a blistering indictment of the ‘keep it in the ground’ policy we hear about so often from industry detractors. To quote the executive summary of the report: “As this Outlook shows, sustained investment is needed to meet the world’s demand for oil and natural gas – even as companies like ExxonMobil invest billions to lower the greenhouse gas emissions associated with its own operations and help other industries lower theirs.”
In this issue of World Pipelines, Umicore argues that pipeline operators have the chance to become instrumental in solving the emissions problem (p. 65): “Acting now on gas will have significant short- and long-term benefits for energy operators. From reducing greenhouse gas emissions, to protecting employees from harm, investing in gas detection devices will reduce the harm that this sector causes, while improving the international understanding of how severe emissions are. Only with this understanding will businesses position themselves to protect their people, benefit their bottom lines, and safeguard the planet”.
Our North American keynote this month hears from Contributing Editor Gordon Cope, who writes about US and Canadian pipeline projects, for transporting fuels both old (oil, natural gas) and new (hydrogen, CO2). In addition, two contributors offer their expertise when it comes to compliance with the US Gas ‘Mega Rule’: Penspen writes about digitising to keep up with the demands of the new regulations; and T.D. Williamson considers integrity threats from dents, and gouge classification under the latest portion of the ‘Mega Rule’ to be enforced.
September sees two significant oil and gas shows taking place on North American soil: Gastech is first up, in Houston, followed by IPCE, in Calgary. Much business will be done at these huge events, as participants continue to invest time, energy and money into meeting the increasing energy demands of the world, facilitating the safe transport of oil and gas, and supporting economic growth – being mindful to reduce emissions as they go.
