Editorial comment
In early July, Hurricane Beryl barrelled out of the Atlantic, to cause chaos in the Caribbean, and then the US Gulf Coast. Beryl is the earliest category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. It moved through Jamaica, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, before making landfall near the coastal town of Matagorda, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. The storm was downgraded to a tropical storm a few hours after landfall.
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Oil ports were closed across a 200 mile stretch of the Texas coast, and vessel traffic was halted. Enbridge activated emergency plans for assets under threat, and Shell and Chevron stopped production and evacuated staff from their Gulf of Mexico offshore platforms.
“Since the storm...threaded the needle between the two major production hubs in Corpus Christi and Houston, it seems that the threat of regional supply disruptions has passed,” said fuel marketer TAC Energy, noting that only Phillips 66’s Sweeny, Texas, facility was in the immediate path of the storm.”1 But Beryl knocked out the power grid in its wake: more than 2.6 million Texas power customers went without electricity for days in the summer heat.
There may be more, and worse, to come: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Centre have predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from 1 June to 30 November, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA has announced new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting this year, along with some enhanced communications for the 2024 season, and system upgrades for its observation activities.
NOAA has long been a pioneer in the use of AI. In the 1980s, NOAA was one of the first organisations to employ AI to analyse satellite data and improve weather forecasting models. In 2020, Congress passed the National AI Initiative Act, which codified the mandate for NOAA’s pioneering coordination of AI application across climate, ocean, earth, and space sciences. At NOAA’s Centre for Artificial Intelligence (NCAI), data scientists work to accelerate the AI-readiness and public cloud accessibility of NOAA data.
Cognitive tools can help oil and gas, and pipeline, operators create best practices for hurricane preparedness, to protect continuity of supply and avoid delays. An increasing number of companies are using AI and mapping data in their modelling scenarios, and in supply chain management.
Two of our keynote articles this month focus on how AI can elevate pipeline project management. Cadmatic explains how digitalisation, ML and AI can help with EPC scheduling (p. 12); and Garrison Haning, Safety Radar (p. 18) outlines how AI can improve workplace safety for pipeline operations.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre will update its 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season. Also out in August is our inaugural Americas issue, covering pipeline activity and trends in North America, Central America, Latin America, the Caribbean and South America. This special issue will offer insight into the unique challenges and opportunities for the pipeline sector in the Americas.
