BMI has said that the outlook for Canada’s oil and gas industry is a positive, but the upstream sector does need more support from the community and government to develop the required infrastructure. The challenging economics of the oilsands projects could slow down growth driven production and weigh on total Canadian hydrocarbon output.
The abundance of gas production is providing Canada with a vast amount of export potential, according to BMI, especially with the number of LNG export terminals that have been approved so far. Proven gas reserves are expected to increase to 2 trillion m3 by 2018 due to shale deposits in the region. However, BMI believe that this is likely to remain level from 2018 – 2023.
Proven oil reserves in Canada are expected to trend slightly lower to 168.3 billion bbls in 2018 due to a slowdown in investments in the oilsands. However, BMI do expect reserves to hold around this level due to additions from liquids rich shale developments. When it comes to liquids production, levels were at 4.02 million bpd in 2013, and this is expected to increase by 150 000 bpd this year. In the long term, production growth will be driven by new projects that are both conventional and unconventional in nature to hit 4.55 million bpd in 2018 and 4.87 million bpd in 2023.
BMI believes that robust unconventional production is going to buoy crude oil production in the US and feed to the downstream sector. However, the US ending bans on exports is not expected any time soon. Encouragement in exporting refined products especially diesel and LPG is expected by BMI. A modest growth trend is forecast by BMI for natural gas production in the USA.
US liquids production is set to increase from 11.2 million bpd in 2013 to 12 million bpd this year and BMI expect the increase to continue in to 2018 to 13.5 million bpd and 14.4 million bpd in 2023. US consumption of gasoline is expected to begin to slump to 2023, despite being the biggest consumed petroleum product in the US at the moment. However, BMI do expect total petroleum consumption to see some growth, encouraged by gains from distillate fuel and LPG. Due to the encouragement to export refined products, the US is likely to shift from a net fuel importer to a net exporter. However BMI has said that it is not advocating energy independence for the US.
When it comes to gas, BMI see only modest gas production growth at 1.3% year on year between 2014 and 2016. Following this, BMI see potential as LNG terminals begin to come online and expect growth to hit 3.3% year on year between 2017 and 2023. Only five LNG terminals are forecast to come online to 2023 including Freeport, Lake Charles, Sabine Pass, Cove Point and Cameron.
Adapted by Claira Lloyd
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/gas-processing/31072014/oil-gas-north-america-bmi/