In a recent report, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has outlined that world energy consumption will increase 56% by 2040 as a result of Asian demand growth.
EIA Administrator, Adam Sieminski, said in a press release: ‘Rising prosperity in China and India is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand. These two countries combined account for half of the world’s total increase in energy use through 2040’.
Fossil fuels will account for 80% of all energy supply. Gas was highlighted as the fastest growing fuel; global consumption will rise by 1.7%/y. Overall gas consumption is expected to increase by approximately 65%, and global energy consumption is anticipated to rise to 185 trillion ft3 by 2040.
The US and Russia are forecast to increase gas production by approximately 340 billion m3 each, and account for nearly one third of the total increase in world gas production between them. Russia’s production growth is mainly stimulated by development of resources in the Arctic and eastern regions of the country, while most US production growth comes from shale resources.
Global trade in both pipeline and LNG is also projected to increase, with global LNG trade doubling from approximately 280 billion m3 in 2010 to approximately 570 billion m3 in 2040.
US moves to exporter
US domestic gas supply is anticipated to increase by 1.3%/y, outpacing domestic consumption by 2019. As gas prices decline, it is predicted that the need for LNG and pipeline imports will also decrease.
Meanwhile, US gas exports are expected to increase to 100 billion m3 in 2040. This growth has been attributed to pipeline exports to Mexico and LNG exports.
The US is expected to become a net exporter of LNG by 2016, increasing to 45 billion m3/y by 2027.
However, new production capacity from foreign countries could affect future LNG export projections. The EIA report makes no reference to the Department of Energy’s delay in approving licenses for LNG projects to export LNG, which could potentially hamper the country in the global race to secure supply contracts.
Adapted from press release by Emma McAleavey.
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