Q1 of this year, according to BMI saw some disappointing results for the Polish petrochemicals industry as recovery within the sector appeared to stall. However, BMI do believe there is an upside for growth as export oriented industries witness strong growth due to the upturn in the EU economy, particularly the country’s main trading partner, Germany.
The overall trend appears to be downwards across the range of polymers, but thankfully, this decline is not strong. In Q1, Polish plastics output was indeed up 3.6% year on year. Yet polyethylene output was down 7.9% and polypropylene was down also by 7.5%. PVC was however up 9.7% as well as synthetic rubber by 1.5%. The low polyethylene output meant that ethylene production was down by 3.4% year n year and propylene was only up by 0.8%.
A recovery in output will depend on export led industries, and these are expected to see stronger growth over the next two years with an 11% increase in exports expected.
When it comes to LNG in Poland BMI believe that due to ongoing delays, first gas imports from the Swinoujscie LNG import terminal will not likely happen until 2015 at the earliest. The terminal and a planned interconnector joining Poland and Slovakia, expected to be online in 2017, will ease Poland’s reliance on gas supplied by Russia.
BMI have forecast that gas consumption will rise from approximately 18.1 billion m3 in 2012 to 20.1 billion m3 in 2018. The rise will most likely be fuelled by gas imports. BMI also remains cautiously optimistic about the country’s shale gas production.
In 2012 and 2013, domestic oil consumption decreased as the country has continued to experience slow growth. BMI has estimated that the overall domestic refined fuels consumption in Poland in 2013 was at 500 730 bpd, a decrease of 4% on 2012 and an 11% drop on 2010. Oil demand is however mainly driven by the transport sector and along with a robust economy, BMI expect oil consumption to rise to 564 190 bpd by 2018.
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