GlobalData has said that global refining throughput levels for 2014 will be 1 million bpd above 2013 levels, and will be largely due to increased capacity in China and the Middle East. In a new report, GlobalData states that just over 500 000 bpd of new refining capacity will commence operation in China early this year, including the new 200 000 bpd Pengzhou and 240 000 Quanzhou refineries and a 90 000 bpd expansion at Yangzi. However, these higher refining throughput levels in China from additional capacity will be somewhat offset by an increase in maintenance activities during the second and third quarters of the year.
The startup of new refining capacity in the Middle East is also going to result in higher runs this year, with refining throughput levels approximately 500 000 bpd higher than last year. This increase in Middle Eastern refining capacity will have a profound impact on global product trade flows.
The report from GlobalData also says that additional aviation fuel from the Middle Eat will be moving mainly to Europe, displacing long haul products from refineries in Asian countries like Singapore, Japan and South Korea, that will alternatively be sold within the Asian market. Furthermore, the increase in the Middle East’s diesel volumes will be used both to meet growing local demand and for exports into Europe.
Carmine Rositano, GlobalData, Managing Analyst, Downstream Oil & Gas said, ‘the higher refining throughput levels in the Middle East are a consequence of new large and efficient refineries in the region. Saudi Arabia’s 400 000 bpd Jubail refinery is ramping up to full capacity and its 400 000 bpd Yanbu refinery will become operational in September 2014, while the UAE’s 420 000 bpd Ruwais refinery is set to open later in Q4 2014.
‘The increase in gasoline volumes will reduce 2014 gasoline imports into the Middle East by approximately 100 000 bpd from both Europe and India. Gasoline volumes from India will alternatively be sold intra-Asia, but European gasoline will have a tough time finding a home and likely result in lower refining runs. This will exacerbate the pressure on refining activities in Europe.’
Adapted from press release by Claira Lloyd
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