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European energy consumption to 2035

Hydrocarbon Engineering,


BP project that EU energy consumption is set to fall despite strong growth in renewables, but the region’s import dependency will remain near today’s levels. Below are some reasons why:

  • Energy demand in the EU has peaked and is expected to fall by 6% by 2035.
  • The region’s energy intensity is expected to decline by 36% during the same period.
  • Energy demand per capita in the EU declines by 8% and is overtaken by China in 2032.
  • Its share of global energy consumption falls from 13% in 2012 to 9% in 2035.
  • Demand for fossil fuels decline by 19% with losses in oil of 27%.
  • Fossil fuels account for only 67% of EU energy consumption in 2035, down from 77% in 2012.
  • Transport demand falls by 20% and oil’s share falls to 87% as gas and biofuels gain.
  • The EU’s CO2 emissions will drop by more than a quarter as gas and renewables increase their share of consumption.
  • The EU’s energy production falls by 5%.
  • Given similar declines in both production and consumption, import dependency remains relatively constant at around 55%.
  • The EU is overtaken by China as the world’s largest energy importing region in 2030, but it remains the largest net importer of natural gas.
  • Production of all fossil fuels decline in the EU, led by oil at a drop of 57% and natural gas at a drop of 46%.
  • Imports of oil will decline by 23% but imports of gas will rise by 49%.


According to BP, Russia will remain the largest net exporter of energy, satisfying 4% of global energy demand by 2035. Here are some of the reasons why:

  • Russia’s energy production and consumption will grow by 21% and 20% between 2012 and 2035.
  • The country’s share of global energy production and consumption will both decline slightly from 10% to 9%, and from 6% to 5% respectively.
  • Russia will remain the world’s largest primary energy exporter, with net exports of 736 million toe by 2035.
  • Russia’s liquids production will trail only Saudi Arabia and the US. Tight oil production will commence post 2020 and gradually climb to 7% of the country’s total by 2035.
  • Gas production will remain predominantly conventional yet will still be the second largest in the world.
  • Fossil fuels will account for 84% of Russian primary energy consumption in 2035, down from 89% in 2012.
  • Natural gas will keep the land in Russia’s fuel mix, yet its share will decline from 54% today to 50% in 2035; oil’s share will remain flat.
  • Gas will also remain the leading fuel in power generation.
  • Energy consumption in power generation will rise by 13%; energy use in transport by 49%.
  • Oil’s share in transport will go down from 94% today to 91% in 2035.
  • Despite significant improvements in energy efficiency, Russia’s energy intensity will remain about twice as high as the OECD average, reflecting an earlier stage of post industrial development and harsh climate.
  • 2 emissions will grow by 14% well below energy consumption growth. 

Edited from various sources by Claira Lloyd.

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