BP project that EU energy consumption is set to fall despite strong growth in renewables, but the region’s import dependency will remain near today’s levels. Below are some reasons why:
- Energy demand in the EU has peaked and is expected to fall by 6% by 2035.
- The region’s energy intensity is expected to decline by 36% during the same period.
- Energy demand per capita in the EU declines by 8% and is overtaken by China in 2032.
- Its share of global energy consumption falls from 13% in 2012 to 9% in 2035.
- Demand for fossil fuels decline by 19% with losses in oil of 27%.
- Fossil fuels account for only 67% of EU energy consumption in 2035, down from 77% in 2012.
- Transport demand falls by 20% and oil’s share falls to 87% as gas and biofuels gain.
- The EU’s CO2 emissions will drop by more than a quarter as gas and renewables increase their share of consumption.
- The EU’s energy production falls by 5%.
- Given similar declines in both production and consumption, import dependency remains relatively constant at around 55%.
- The EU is overtaken by China as the world’s largest energy importing region in 2030, but it remains the largest net importer of natural gas.
- Production of all fossil fuels decline in the EU, led by oil at a drop of 57% and natural gas at a drop of 46%.
- Imports of oil will decline by 23% but imports of gas will rise by 49%.
According to BP, Russia will remain the largest net exporter of energy, satisfying 4% of global energy demand by 2035. Here are some of the reasons why:
- Russia’s energy production and consumption will grow by 21% and 20% between 2012 and 2035.
- The country’s share of global energy production and consumption will both decline slightly from 10% to 9%, and from 6% to 5% respectively.
- Russia will remain the world’s largest primary energy exporter, with net exports of 736 million toe by 2035.
- Russia’s liquids production will trail only Saudi Arabia and the US. Tight oil production will commence post 2020 and gradually climb to 7% of the country’s total by 2035.
- Gas production will remain predominantly conventional yet will still be the second largest in the world.
- Fossil fuels will account for 84% of Russian primary energy consumption in 2035, down from 89% in 2012.
- Natural gas will keep the land in Russia’s fuel mix, yet its share will decline from 54% today to 50% in 2035; oil’s share will remain flat.
- Gas will also remain the leading fuel in power generation.
- Energy consumption in power generation will rise by 13%; energy use in transport by 49%.
- Oil’s share in transport will go down from 94% today to 91% in 2035.
- Despite significant improvements in energy efficiency, Russia’s energy intensity will remain about twice as high as the OECD average, reflecting an earlier stage of post industrial development and harsh climate.
2 emissions will grow by 14% well below energy consumption growth.
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/gas-processing/17012014/europe_energy_to_2035_66/