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The US, the world’s largest oil supplier

Hydrocarbon Engineering,

According to data presented at PIRA Energy Group’s Retainer Client Seminar earlier this month, the US is now the world’s largest producer of oil. US total supply for 2013 is expected to average at 12.1 million bpd. Last year, the US overtook Russia to become the second largest supplier of oil, just behind Saudi Arabia. The US and Saudi Arabia increased supply in 2013, though production in the US grew at a faster pace. US total supply in 2013 is largest than that of Saudi Arabia by 0.3 million bpd and ahead of Russia by 1.6 million bpd. The fourth through 10th largest suppliers are China, Canada, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Mexico.

Liquids supply

Total oil supply counts all forms of liquids supply. The largest part is of course crude oil, including condensates. In this category, the US is expected to produce 7.4 million bpd, which is less than that produced in Saudi Arabia and Russia. But the US has a substantial supply of other forms, including NGLS at 2.5 million bpd, biofuels at 1 million bpd and refinery gain at almost 1.3 million bpd.

Shale oil

The US has powered through to the world leader in oil supply because of the growth in shale oil. Shale crude and condensate production at 2.5 million bpd in 2013 is now slightly over one third of total US crude production, and shale NGL at 1.2 million bpd is almost half of total NGLs. Shale crude appears to be growing by 0.8 million bpd this year and shale NGL is growing by 0.3 million bpd compared to last year. The US shale liquids growth of 3.2 million bpd over the last four years has been nearly unparalleled in the history of world oil; only Saudi Arabia in 1970 – 1974 raised its production faster.

The present and the future

US total supply growth in 2013 is seen at 1 million bpd and growth is expected to be the same as last year. Its growth rate is greater than the sum of the growth of the next nine fastest growing countries combined and has covered most of the world’s net demand growth over the past two years.

The US position as the largest oil supplier in the world looks to be secure for many years. Although growth rates of US shale liquids are expected to become smaller in the future, PIRA’s forecast sees the US increasing the lead over the next two largest countries until after 2020 and retaining the lead to at least through 2030.

Adapted from a press release by Claira Lloyd.

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