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May oil market report

Hydrocarbon Engineering,

The IEA has released its Oil Market Report for May and has raised the global demand growth forecast for this year marginally from April 2014 to 1.32 million bpd, as a result of higher first quarter data. The increase also reflects an upward adjustment to baseline 2012 non-OECD demand, particularly in India, China and Saudi Arabia which added 0.1 million bpd to the historical average as well as to 2014 demand which is now slated as 92.8 million bpd.

Oil production

After the five month lows that were hit in March, OPEC crude oil production rebounded by 405 000 bpd in April to hit 29.90 million bpd contributing to the 700 000 bpd month on month increase in global supplies to 92.1 million bpd. Global supplies were 820 00 bpd higher in April 2014 than the previous year, with non-OPEC year on year output growth of 1.8 million bpd more than offsetting an OPEC crude oil decline of 960 000 bpd. The call on the OPEC crude and stock change for the second half of this year was raised by 140 000 bpd to 30.7 million bpd.

Refinery throughout

In April, global refinery crude throughputs hit a seasonal low, estimated to be 75.4 million bpd, on plant maintenance and seasonally weak demand. Runs are set to rebound steeply until August as turnarounds unwind and demand increases. Global throughputs are projected to average 76.2 million bpd in the current quarter, 0.4 million bpd lower than in the first.

OECD stocks

OECD industry inventories slipped by 2.5 million bbls in March to 2.570 million bbls, as a steep drawdown of product stocks partly offset rising crude and feedstock holdings. Preliminary data indicate that OECD commercial stocks surged by 52.1 million bbls in April, reducing the deficit against the five year averages to 79 million bbls from 110 million bbls at the end of March. 

Adapted from a press release by Claira Lloyd.

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