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IEA Oil Market Report for October

Hydrocarbon Engineering,

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report (OMR) for October reduced its forecast of global oil demand for 2014 by 0.2 million bbls/d from the previous month, to 92.4 million bpd, on lower expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth for 2014 is now projected at 0.7 million bpd, rising tentatively to 1.1 million bpd in 2014 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.

OPEC crude oil output surged to a 13 month high in September, led by Libya’s continued recovery and higher Iraqi flows. Production rose 415 000 bpd from August to 30.66 million bpd. A weaker demand outlook cut the ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ by 200 000 bpd for 2015 to 29.3 million bpd. The ‘call’ declines seasonally by 1.5 million bpd from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2015.

The higher output from OPEC as well as from non-OPEC producers lifted global supply by almost 910 000 bpd in September to 93.8 million bpd. Compared with a year earlier, total supply stood 2.8 million bpd higher, as OPEC supply swung back to growth and amplified robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 million bpd. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to average 1.3 million bpd in 2015.

Global refinery crude demand hit new highs in August, near 79 million bpd, with OECD runs leading the uptick. The onset of seasonal plant maintenance sees runs fall through October, taking global crude runs to 77.5 million bpd this quarter from 78.1 million bpd in the third quarter, with year on year growth rising over the same period to 1.4 million bpd from 0.9 million bpd.

OECD commercial total oil inventories in September built by 37.7 million bbls over August, to 2698 million bbls, narrowing the five year average deficit by 38.1 million bbls, from 67.1 million bbls one month earlier. Preliminary data indicates that inventories rose counter seasonally by 14 million bbls over September, led by a steep 11.7 million bbls build in middle distillates.

Adapted from a press release by Emma McAleavey.

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