Natural gas storage deficit to five year average is narrowing

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), storage injections have continued to outpace the five year (2009 – 2013) average this summer, with inventories as of 5 September at 2801 billion ft³, according to data from the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). The winter of 2013 – 2014 led to a large drawdown in inventories, with stocks ending March 2014 almost 1 trillion ft³ lower than the five year average and at their lowest end March level since 2003. Relatively higher weekly net injections into storage reduced that deficit to 463 billion ft³ as of 5 September.

EIA’s latest Short Term energy outlook (STEO) expects that this trend will continue, with forecast inventories of 3477 billion ft³ by the end of October, 355 billion ft³ below the five year average and the lowest end of October level since 2008. However, the effect of these lower inventories in winter natural gas markets is expected to be mitigated by increasing new production, as evidenced by decreasing seasonality in natural gas futures contracts.

Although the injection season began slowly, injections have exceeded their average comparable week levels in each week since 18 April. Strong domestic production growth and mild demand have supported strong injections through the summer. Dry natural gas production grew to 70.2 billion ft³/d in June, up nearly 6% from 66.4 billion ft³/d in June 2013, while mild weather reduced natural gas use for electric generation. Natural gas prices have also fallen during the injection season.

Working natural gas injections since 1 April are above the five year average in every region: 24% higher in the East, 53% higher in the West, and 69% in the Producing region. STEO projects that East region inventories will have gone from 58% below the five year average at the end of March, to 9% below the five year average at the end of October. West region inventories will have gone from 45% below the five year average to 2% below the five year average, and Producing region inventories will have gone from 53% below the five year average to 15% below the five year average in that time.

Adapted from a press release by Emma McAleavey.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/gas-processing/12092014/us-natural-gas-storage-deficit-1279/