The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its Oil Market Report (OMR) for August, lowering its 2014 global oil demand growth by 1 million bpd on lower than expected deliveries in the second quarter and the International Monetary Fund’s weaker outlook for economic growth.
However, as the economy improves in 2015, demand is set to accelerate by 1.3 million bpd.
According to the IEA, OPEC crude oil supply increased by 300 000 bpd to 30.4 million bpd in July, a five month high. A 10 million bpd increase from Saudi Arabia and a tentative recovery in Libyan output more than made up for declines in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria. The ‘call on OPEC Crude and stock exchange’ averages approximately 30.8 million bpd for the fourth quarter, as in the third.
Global oil supply increased 230 000 bpd in July, to 93 million bpd, with higher OPEC output countering lower non-OPEC supply. Comapred with July 2013, global supplies rose 840 000 bpd, as a 1.2 million bpd increase in non-OPEC supplies more than offset a 360 000 bpd decline in OPEC output.
OECD industry stocks posted their sixth consecutive build in June, rising 13.8 million bbls to stand at 2671 million bbls by the end of the month, according to the OMR. This is the highest level since September 2013. Inventories’ deficit to the five-year average narrowed to 42.1 million bbls from 52.0 bbls at the end of May. The second quarter stock build of 88 million bbls was the largest quarterly build since the third quarter of 2006.
IEA highlighted that global refinery activity saw diverging trends in June. A counter-seasonal fall in OECD throughputs contrasted with record highs in key non-OECD countries. The OMR estimated second quarter global refinery runs at 76.5 million bpd, 1.3 million bpd more than a year earlier and 0.2 million bpd higher than in the previous OMR. Projections for the third quarter remain unchanged at 77.8 million bpd.
dapted from a press release by Emma McAleavey.
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