The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its Oil Market Report (OMR) for September, trimming global oil demand growth for 2014 and 2015 to 0.9 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd respectively because of a pronounced slowdown in demand growth in the second quarter of this year and a weaker outlook for Europe and China. Demand in 2015 is now set for 93.8 million bpd, the monthly report indicates.
Global supply declined 400 000 bpd in August, to 92.9 million bpd, as non-OPEC production eased. Also, non-OPEC production fell by 130 000 bpd in August to 30.31 million bpd as a steady recovery in Libya failed to offset lower supply from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. However, compared to August 2013, global supply rose 810 000 bpd as a 1.2 million bpd rise in non-OPEC output more than offset a 370 000 bpd year on year drop for OPEC. Non-OPEC supply is set to expand by 1.6 million bpd in 2014, and 1.3 million bpd in 2015, to reach 57.6 million bpd, according to the report.
The weather demand outlook as well as robust non_OPEC supply growth led the OMR to trim its ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ by 200 000 bpd for the fourth quarter of this year to 30.6 million bpd and 300 000 bpd for 2015 to 29.6 million bpd.
OECD industry inventories built seasonally by 15.5 million bbls in July, to 2670 million bbls, on soaring US stocks of ‘other products’. Preliminary data indicates that stocks continued their upward trajectory in August, rising by 19.5 million bbls, further cutting the deficit to the five year average, which stood at 57 million bpd at the end of July.
Adapted from a press release by Emma McAleavey.
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