IEA revises global oil demand growth forecast

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast of global oil demand growth to 1.3 million bpd in order to reflect downwards adjustments to the projection of Russian demand.

Despite this, the absolute demand estimate remained roughly unchanged for March, at 92.7 million bpd, as upwards revisions to non-OECD Asian demand counterbalanced the lower Russian growth.

According to the IEA oil market report (OMR) for April, global oil supplies plunged 1.2 million bpd during March, to 91.75 million bpd, primarily due to steeply lower OPEC output for the month. However, it remained 1.1 million bpd higher than the same time last year, as non-OPEC growth of 1.98 million bpd more than offset an approximately 1 million bpd drop in OPEC crude.

A reduction in supply expectations for former Soviet Union countries contributed to a cut in the non-OPEC supply growth forecast by 250 000 bpd, to 1.5 million bpd. The OMR found that OPEC supply in March totalled 26.62 million bpd.

Global refinery crude demand is anticipated to drop by 2 million bpd from February through April due to planned maintenance in the Atlantic Basin and the Pacific. 

Adapted from a press release by Emma McAleavey.

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