Crude oil forecast to 2030 from CAPP

According to CAPP’s new 2014 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation, Canadian oil production is going to grow steadily by an annual average of 4% of 175 000 bpd over the period to 2030 as companies continue to develop the oilsands in response to strong demand indications in North America and other global energy markets. The report predicts that overall, Canadian crude oil production will increase to 6.4 million bpd by 2030 from the 3.5 million bpd produced in 2013.

Crude oil transportation

As oil production increases, more transportation capacity is required to transport products to new and existing markets. Several projects are at various stages in the regulatory process and others are being considered. They include pipelines to the east and west in Canada and south to the US. The projected growth in production is dependent on expansion of transportation capacity to a portfolio of market opportunities.

Pipelines do remain the primary transportation mode for large crude oil volumes over long periods of time, however, delay in the regulatory process for Keystone XL has provided the impetus for additional capacity from railways, barges, and tankers in the transportation mix. With the construction of new loading and unloading facilities, existing rail lines provide flexibility to deliver to multiple destinations.

Production growth

To 2030 oilsands remain the primary growth driver with production growth to 4.8 million bpd. Conventional oil production in Western Canada, including condensates remains stable at 1.5 million bpd and Eastern Canadian offshore production declines to approximately 90 000 bpd.

Conventional oil production continues to reverse its previous long decline because of the continuing use of horizontal and multi fracturing drilling techniques. Increased drilling in liquids rich areas has also reversed a declining production trend for condensates, a light oil often used as diluent in the oilsands. In Eastern Canada, three recent discoveries in the Flemish Pass Basin may lead to increased projections for the region in future CAPP forecasts.

2013 versus 2014 forecasts

CAPP’s 2013 forecast estimated total production in 2030 of 6.7 million bpd, oilsands production at 5.2 million bpd, and conventional production at 1.4 million bpd. During the early part of the forecast period the two forecasts are very similar, with production from current projects and projects under construction being relatively firm. However, the latter part of the forecast is more dependent on new growth projects. While the overall trends in the two forecasts are consistent, the difference between the two forecasts later in the period primarily reflects increasing uncertainty regarding project timing related to cost competitiveness and capital availability. These impacts are more evident in proposed oilsands projects near the end of the forecast period.

Comments

CAPP Vice President, Greg Stringham said, ‘global demand for oil continues to increase and Canada’s large reserves make it an attractive supply source for markets in the US and beyond. Connecting Canadian supplies to these markets, safely and competitively, remains a key priotity for our industry.’

Adapted for web by Claira Lloyd

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/gas-processing/10062014/capp_crude_oil_to_2030/