There are large reserves of hydrocarbons in Algeria, however, BMI has said that due to rapid decline in the country’s major fields, long term production levels will decrease. Unconventionals could however reverse this if production becomes successful. When it comes to investment in Algeria there are concerns due to the terrorist attack on the BP owned Amenas gas plant. This event in particular, according to BMI, has resulted in security concerns. But improvements are being made to security protocols across the country and normalisation of operations are likely to resume.
The consumption of crude is forecast by BMI to steady between now and 2023 and be in line with the anticipated GDP rate. Consumption is likely to rise from the 2013 levels of 341 190 bpd to 465 900 bpd in 2023. Gas levels are also expected to increase with production moving from 79.2 billion m3 in 2013 to 94.3 billion m3 in 2023. For gas consumption, levels are expected to grow at approximately 4%.
BMI has said that it sees the oil and gas sector in Ghana as an attractive business environment that is likely to attract high level investments. There is likely to be strong growth in the export of crude oil as the country increases its production levels however, there will be a threat to export revenue in the form of the sheer volume of light, sweet crude that is currently on the market. BMI has also said that increasing domestic consumption and limited refining output will lead to Ghana becoming more dependent on the import of refined fuels.
Looking at gas, due to a moratorium on gas flaring in the country, associated gas production at Jubilee has become a major bottleneck to output, according to BMI. The government has however lifted the moratorium temporarily, allowing a build up in production. First gas for next year is forecast at 0.45 billion m3 and is expected to increase to 3.15 billion m3 by 2023.
BMI has said that South Africa’s oil and gas sectors are set to grow with the discovery of new resources. However, due to the passing of a new mineral and petroleum resources development bill there is currently widespread regulatory unease in the industry and this would have negative effects in the long term with regards to future investment in particular.
In the downstream sector, there is strong government support for Porject Mthombo which is expected to take over coal to liquids expansion and green field projects. Initial plans for the facility wanted a 400 000 bpd plant, but this has now been downgraded to 300 000 bpd as a refinery of that size is seen as more feasible. When the plant is complete, PetroSA will have a stronger market position within in the downstream sector.
Sudan and South Sudan
The production of oil is seeing further downside due to violence in Sudan and South Sudan and BMI predicts more lasting production outages to come. In 2013, oil production averaged 253 000 bpd and is forecast to be 240 000 bpd for this year. Recovery is expected starting next year with production hitting 417 000 bpd in 2017 but falling again to 366 000 bpd by 2023.
Edited from report briefs by Claira Lloyd
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/gas-processing/09102014/african-oil-gas-bmi/