BMI has said that the political and security situations in Iraq have had and will continue to have detrimental affects on the progress of the country and in particular its oil and gas industry. Many gas project have been reportedly aborted or suspended due to the violence in the country and many major oil and gas companies have delayed projects and extracted non-essential staff from the region. Investor confidence has been seriously impacted by the situation and it is not at all clear when recovery is to begin.
Private investment in Kuwait’s oil and gas sector is challenged by the Kuwaiti government’s dominant position in the sector, according to BMI. The country is reliant on exports of oil and gas, and this will continue, leading to a less competitive investment climate. Kuwait currently has an oil production target of 4 million bpd by 2020, but BMI has said that without outside investment this is not likely to be achieved.
Oil production in the country currently stands at 2.87 million bpd and this is likely to increase slightly in 2015 to 2.93 million bpd. When it comes to gas, earlier this year Kuwait signed an agreement with Shell under which Shell will provide the country with LNG over a six year period. The agreement is estimated to be worth US 12 billion. Other avenues to explore the natural gas sector have also been presented to the country this year, according to BMI. Kuwait is currently in discussion with Iran regarding purchasing natural gas, as well as sharing gas field production.
BMI believes that Pakistan’s reserves of oil and gas are going to continue to dwindle as no new significant discoveries are being made. To help combat this, Elengy Terminal Pakistan Limited has secured a license from the country’s Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority to construct an LNG regas terminal at Port Qasim. The terminal is expected to be up and running in 11 months after the contracts for its construction have been awarded.
Pipeline projects are also in motion to help supply the country. GAIL India’s pipeline to Pakistan is now making progress and it will be supported, according to BMI by falling Asian LNG prices and new LNG tax exemptions in India.
BMI has reported that should oil prices remain above US$ 90 /bbl then oil output from the country is expected to remain stable over the coming months. Average production for this year has so far been 9.73 million bpd, which is a small increase on 2013 production levels of 9.68 million bpd, however it is lower than 2012’s record levels. A drop in crude export levels is anticipated from the country when the Yasref refinery comes online which is expected to amount to 200 000 bpd. Oil and liquids production are expected to grow from 2014 levels of 11.6 million bpd to 11.9 million bpd in 2018 and hit 12.4 million bpd by 2023.
In the refining sector, capacity was at 2.5 million bpd as of the end of September when the Jubail refinery came in to play. Supply is expected to rise to nearly 3.3 million bpd by 2023 as the Jizan and Yanbu refineries come onstream. Saudi Arabia is expected to push its crude exports to its refineries over seas in the coming years which will also impact the export levels to the rest of the international market. Saudi’s key foreign refineries are in the US, China and South Korea. The expansions planned for Saudi’s refining industry means that it is likely to become a major exporter of refined products across the globe.
Edited from report briefs by Claira Lloyd
Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/gas-processing/08102014/mid-east-oil-gas-bmi/