GlobalData has said that global refining capital expenditure (CAPEX) could reach approximately US$ 333 billion between 2014 and 2020, representing an annual average of almost US$ 48 billion and 1.6 million bpd. A new report from the company has stated that the total expenditures in Asia will amount to 46% of the world’s total, with China at 17%, India at 12% and all Other Asia at 17%, thanks to National Oil Companies (NOCs) increasing capacity levels in China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan.
Expenditure in the Middle East will account for 23% of capital spending by the end of the forecast period, according to GlobalData, with NOCs building capacity in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and the UAE to meet their growing oil demands for refined product export purposes. Carmine Rositano, Global Data’s Managing Analyst, Downstream Oil & Gas said, ‘thanks to the planned construction of efficient, large and complex grassroot refineries, such as cracking and coking facilities, along with various expansion projects, refining expenditures and the Middle East and Asia are forecast to represent a combined 70% share of the world’s total spending.
‘Elsewhere, the CAPEX for Latin America (including Mexico), Africa, the Former Soviet Union and the US is forecast at 18%, 8%, 4% and 1% of the global total, respectively.’
China will be the largest single market with 17% of global CAPEX, correlating with 22% of all capacity additions up to 2020, according to the new report. Also, GlobalData attributes the country’s reasonable project costs to less expensive labour and the construction of large efficient refineries in areas with significant existing infrastructure, such as docks, pipelines and storage terminals.
In contrast, Africa is expected to experience significantly higher production costs for its own new grassroots projects, which are planned in Nigeria, Angola and Gabon. These countries have a lack of highly skilled workforces and minimal infrastructures, meaning that most, if not all, equipment, materials and labour will need to be imported.
Rositano concluded, ‘further costs for this region will also result from the financial and geopolitical risks associated with the construction of onshore refining facilities in African countries, such as Algeria and Uganda. These factors will push Africa’s refining CAPEX to almost US$ 28 billion by the end of 2020.’
Adapted for web by Claira Lloyd
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