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Nigeria’s hydrocarbon sector

Hydrocarbon Engineering,

The ‘Nigeria Oil and Gas Report’ from Business Monitor notes that the country’s hydrocarbon sector is continuing to struggle amid a worsening political and business environment. Chevron’s recent decision to move out of the OKLNG project signals that even the large upside potential of the Nigerian gas market is not sufficiency to offset the degradation in investor sentiment. There were weak output flows in 2012 and these were due to flooding, repeated oil thefts and regulatory uncertainty.

In the report Business Monitor says that it expects continued feeble production from this year and for the next two years. The report also notes that output should ramp up more significantly as many large fields come online after 2014, more than offsetting current depletion. Also, Business Monitor believe that adoption of the Petroleum Industry Bill will be a strong signal for investors that Nigeria’s hydrocarbons sector is ready to move forward.

Key findings

  • China has agreed to loan US$ 1.1 billion to Nigeria at a very advantageous interest rate. In return Nigeria will allow the lender privileged access to natural resources. Similar deals could revive Nigeria’s oil and gas sector thought exports.
  • The soon to open Escravos GTL plant would help monetise part of the gas currently flared in the country.
  • This year, disturbance and outages due to oil thieves have continued. Shell has declared force majeure on Bonny Light exports since the start of 2013.
  • 2013 production will be slightly lower than 2012 estimates, reaching 2.50 million bpd.
  • By 2020 it is expected that oil production will increase from 2012 levels to 2.70 million bpd in 2020 due to the Usan and Egina projects coming onstream.
  • Business Monitor forecast that crude consumption will rise from 252 000 bpd in 2012 to 495 000 bpd in 2022.
  • Nigerian gas consumption is expected to rise from 2012 figures of 5.8 billion m3 to 15 billion m3 in 2022.
  • Nigeria National Petroleum Corp (NNPC) is looking to more than double its annual LNG production.
  • The Nigerian government is investing a total of US$ 1.6 billion in repairing the country’s three refineries. 

Edited from various sources by Claira Lloyd.

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